In January, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists set their “Doomsday Clock” to 90 seconds before midnight, in an assessment of how close the world is to “global catastrophe”—the prospect of nuclear war. Three recent events over the past few weeks have reinforced the idea that the world is entering a dangerous era of nuclear risk.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 upended international politics, and seriously affected China’s strategic calculations. Beijing is now scrambling to limit the fallout of the conflict on its core strategic and economic interests, and with the prospects of a clear Russian victory waning by the day, China faces a dilemma.
A year after Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Zeitenwende speech, progress has been made in remaking Germany’s defense strategy on multiple fronts. But the lingering concern is whether Scholz has the political capital—and courage—to break away from the structural incentives that have guided Germany’s security posture since reunification.
