The room came to order. The negotiators, some still exasperated by the day’s events, sat anxiously awaiting the final results. “Congratulations, delegates,” the moderator announced. “You have negotiated a comprehensive successor agreement to the Kyoto Protocol.” The delegates erupted in deafening applause, screams of joy and relieved laughter. No, these were not real-life climate-change negotiators. In August, we designed and ran a daylong scenario to simulate the international climate-change negotiations that will launch in Cancun, Mexico, on Nov. 29. Our goals were to gain a sense of how events may play out in Cancun when the real international negotiators meet [...]
According to virtually all global warming projections, humanity faces significantly more conflict in the decades ahead as we fight over dwindling resources in climate-stressed lands. However, those reports typically overlook one likely outcome that could counterbalance the more negative impacts of global warming — that of northern territories becoming significantly milder, more accessible, and, most intriguingly, more hospitable to immigration. This is the essential good news to be found in Laurence C. Smith’s fascinating new book, “The World in 2050.” The ambitious title is perhaps a bit misleading, for where Smith really delivers is on the subtitle: “Four Forces Shaping [...]
LIMA, Peru — With the entire western Amazon experiencing oil and mining booms, indigenous groups in the Amazon Basin and the Andes — already fighting encroachment by loggers and small-scale farmers, or else struggling to obtain title for their ancestral land — have now stepped up their resistance to efforts to exploit oil reserves, mineral deposits and other natural resources in and nearby their communities. In response, the region’s presidents have accused native leaders and environmentalists who help them of everything from terrorism to being U.S. lackeys. The trends cut across ideological divides. Peruvian President Alan Garcia has taken a [...]
