Editor’s note: This will be the final appearance of Thomas P.M. Barnett’s “The New Rules” column at World Politics Review. We’d like to take this opportunity to thank Tom for the insightful, compelling analysis he has offered WPR readers each week for the past three years, as well as for the support he has shown for WPR over that time. We wish him continued success. Amid all our current fears regarding the global economy’s potential “double dip” back into deep recession, a longer-term question stands out: How can a supposedly declining America protect the golden goose that is globalization while […]

With the Iran-Pakistan-India natural gas pipeline project a casualty of U.S. opposition and persistent mistrust between New Delhi and Islamabad, India has increasingly turned to Qatar to meet its growing natural gas requirements over the past decade. Holding the world’s third-largest gas reserves after Russia and Iran, Qatar is a natural choice for such a role. But after the recent visit of Qatari Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani to India, the two states are looking to broaden their economic ties beyond trade in energy. Qatar is set to emerge as a strategic investor in India’s infrastructure plans, while […]

Vladimir Putin will be inaugurated to serve a third term as Russia’s president next month. The pomp and circumstance of the Kremlin ceremonies, however, won’t be able to hide the fact that, far from being a triumphal restoration of his rightful role, Putin’s return to the presidency is in fact a tacit admission of failure. Putin and his associates have not yet succeeded in achieving the truest mark of success for any political regime: the ability to pass the system intact to a next generation of leadership. The Putin system continues to depend on Putin personally for it to be […]

Global Insider: Russia-China Military Ties Growing Despite Friction

Russia and China launched their first joint naval exercises in the Yellow Sea on Monday. In an email interview, Simon Saradzhyan, a research fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center, discussed military cooperation between Russia and China. WPR: How has Russia-China military and defense cooperation evolved over the past 10 years?Simon Saradzhyan: Bilateral military cooperation has developed steadily thanks to a general rapprochement between China and postcommunist Russia. On top of strong economic ties, the growth is based on the convergence of the two countries’ interests in opposing U.S. global dominance, the development of U.S. missile defenses, the expansion […]

Although the tense standoff between Chinese and Philippine warships at Scarborough Shoal in the northern South China Sea has been walked back from the brink, it is a harbinger of more confrontations to come. Indeed, more such incidents are inevitable if China and the four Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states — the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei — that also claim the sea’s disputed islands and their adjacent waters and resources cannot agree on and implement a robust code of conduct to govern their activities there. Unfortunately, the April 2012 ASEAN Summit in Phnom Penh came and […]

Collapse of Dutch Government Brings Eurozone Crisis From Periphery to Core

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced his resignation Monday after his coalition government failed to agree on austerity measures needed to bring the Dutch budget into conformity with the European Union’s recently agreed-upon deficit limits. Budget talks in the Netherlands broke down after Geert Wilders’ euroskeptic Freedom Party abandoned negotiations over the weekend. “The news from the Netherlands drives home the fact that this crisis is no longer a crisis of the periphery. It is often portrayed as the core counties versus the periphery, as the North versus the South, but the Netherlands is a core country in the North,” […]

Arctic Ocean Could Be Open For Shipping in 5-10 Years

A Canadian scientist claims the Arctic Ocean will be open for regular commercial shipping within the next five to 10 years, but changing ice conditions could bring new hazards to ships. Science News by NewsLook

End of Egyptian Gas Deal No Threat to Israel’s Energy Security

Citing a payment dispute, Egyptian Natural Gas Holding has announced that it is terminating its deliveries of natural gas to Israel, bringing an end to a deal that, since it was signed in 2005, had supplied Israel with 40 percent of its natural gas. Media reports have focused on the impact this sudden termination of the deal might have on the fragile peace agreement between the two countries. But Brenda Shaffer, an energy policy expert at the University of Haifa in Israel, told Trend Lines that the news does not have serious implications for Israel’s longer-term energy security, as the […]

As Beijing prepares for a once-in-a-decade change of leadership, the ouster of Bo Xilai and a series of significant financial reforms have been widely seen as signs that reformist elements within the Chinese government are in the ascendency. This analysis may be correct, but it needs to be tempered with a broader look at the Chinese political and policy landscape, which shows that reforms still lag in multiple key areas and that progressive signals are so far limited to the financial sector. The position of the army, a key political constituent, also remains unclear. The political intrigue surrounding the removal […]

Even in the corridors of the Chinese Communist Party’s headquarters in Zhongnanhai, few would have predicted the remarkable rise in China’s comprehensive national strength since Deng Xiaoping launched the Reform and Open policy in 1978. China’s evolution has been one of the most remarkable feats of governance ever seen. But rather than the definitive manual in strategic planning that it is sometimes portrayed as, the history of China’s post-Mao transformation reads more like a great picaresque novel, in which the protagonist has been forced to beg, steal and kill; navigate untold pitfalls and reversals; and escape from several tight squeezes […]

Russia has been in the international spotlight in recent months, with frustration over endemic corruption, lingering anger over December’s manipulated Duma elections and Vladimir Putin’s carefully orchestrated return to the presidency bringing Russian protesters out into the streets in greater numbers than at any time since the fall of the Soviet Union. But despite its political crisis, Russia retains the ability to impact U.S. interests worldwide: The Kremlin is unafraid to flex its still-considerable muscle abroad, blocking U.S.-led efforts to sanction and topple the bloody government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, threatening to upend European and even global security over […]

Global Insider: U.S.-Mexico Energy Deal Sets Important Precedent

In March, the Mexican Senate ratified an agreement with the U.S. governing the exploration and development of transboundary oil and gas reserves in the Gulf of Mexico. In an email interview, Duncan Wood, director of the international relations program at Mexico’s Autonomous Institute of Technology and a senior associate in the Americas program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, discussed the U.S.-Mexico transboundary energy agreement. WPR: What is the history of energy cooperation between the U.S. and Mexico? Duncan Wood: Since the nationalization of Mexican oil in 1938, the relationship between the two countries in energy matters has […]

There is a popular tendency to characterize globalization as an elite-based conspiracy or as something imposed by greedy outsiders upon unsuspecting native populations, hence the enduring belief in the possibility of its systemic reversal. In truth, the spread of modern globalization reflects a bottom-up demand function, not a top-down supply imposition. People simply crave connectivity — in all its physical and virtual forms — as well as the freedom of choice that it unleashes. This simple truth is worth remembering when we contemplate America’s global role in the decades ahead. Why? Time is most definitely on our side. Given enough […]

For more than two centuries, Englishmen have burned an effigy of Guy Fawkes every year on Nov. 5 to commemorate the foiling of the Gunpowder plot to blow up Parliament in 1605. In the 21st century, Fawkes has been given a new lease on life by online activist groups who use photos of Guy Fawkes masks — modeled after that worn by the hero of the science fiction movie “V for Vendetta” — as their online avatars. These so-called hacktivists, who combine computer hacking with social, political and economic protest, have straddled the line between simple criminal behavior and legitimate […]

Global Insider: North Korea the True Target for China-South Korea Pipeline Proposal

Jiang Jiemin, the chairman of the China National Petroleum Corp., has reportedly floated the idea of building an undersea pipeline that would deliver Russian natural gas to South Korea via China, as an alternative to a long-discussed plan to build a pipeline connecting Russia, North Korea and South Korea. In an email interview, Se Hyun Ahn, chair of the department of international relations at the University of Seoul, discussed the prospect of a Russia-China-South Korea pipeline. WPR: What are South Korea’s sources of natural gas, and how is it delivered? Se Hyun Ahn: South Korea imports all of its natural […]

U.S. policy toward the Western Hemisphere has suffered a series of setbacks over the past month. The first, the Washington summit earlier this month between Presidents Barack Obama and Dilma Rousseff of Brazil, was simply lackluster. The second, last weekend’s Summit of the Americas in Cartagena, Colombia, was an outright fiasco. Instead of laying out a common agenda for the hemisphere and rebuilding America’s leadership role in the region, the U.S. found itself isolated in a diplomatic corner over Cuba, to say nothing of the Secret Service prostitution scandal that soon overshadowed the proceedings. More generally, Obama’s Latin America policy […]

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