Economics & Business Archive

While much has been said about the overall merits of the New START agreement, comparatively little attention has focused on the treaty’s Article 10. This relatively short but telling passage borrows decades-old language reinforcing both the United States’ and Russia’s mutual obligations regarding “national technical means” (NTM) of treaty monitoring and verification — diplomatic speak for spy satellites. Article 10 obligates both parties to use NTM in accordance with the principles of international law, to refrain from concealment measures intended to impede NTM verification of compliance, and, most importantly, not to interfere with each other’s NTM. The nod to NTM […]

Dilma Rousseff won Brazil’s recent presidential elections handily, benefitting from both the enthusiastic backing of the enormously popular incumbent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and from the mobilization of historically disadvantaged voters excited by identification with a woman candidate. Despite some nasty exchanges with her second-round opponent, José Serra of the Social Democratic Party, the campaign was characterized by the lack of a clear programmatic separation between the two candidates. Although markets moderately preferred Serra, a casual observer might be excused for failing to see much daylight between the two. The fact that the two leading candidates for office differed […]

XI’AN, China — While often portrayed as a major international cyber-security villain, the Chinese state is also facing its own grave online security problems. Despite having one of the most restricted internets in the world, it has generally struggled to develop coherent or effective policy responses to these threats. Recent developments suggest China may be attempting to modernize and legitimize its cyber-security apparatus. This represents a significant opportunity for foreign governments to revisit their perceptions of the country’s cyber intentions and engage with Beijing on a major transnational security and intelligence issue. To do so, it is first necessary to […]

The recent revelation that a computer worm called Stuxnet had caused disruption to the Iranian nuclear program has raised concerns about the unintended consequences of so-called cyber war. It has also caught the attention of nation states and others as Stuxnet has proven to be a truly disruptive cyber weapon. We have witnessed the true dawn of cyber war. Noted cyber security specialist Bruce Schneier recently wrote that cyber arms “agreements are badly needed” and that it is “not too late to reverse the cyber arms race currently under way.” Schneier is not alone in this call. For several years […]

Two developments this week illustrated the “one step forward, one step back” nature of global nuclear nonproliferation efforts. On the one hand, Iran announced further progress in its domestic nuclear program, increasing Tehran’s potential ability to make nuclear weapons should it ultimately decide to do so. On the other, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) took an important step toward discouraging the further spread of uranium-enrichment technologies, which could be used to pursue nuclear weapons capabilities, by voting to establish the first completely multinational nuclear fuel bank. Although the IAEA move will not solve the immediate problem presented by Iran, […]

In October, India announced its inaugural scientific expedition to the South Pole, with the news well-received by the Antarctic Treaty nations, according to the Times of India. At about the same time, the Chinese icebreaker Snow Dragon embarked on its 27th expedition to the Antarctic, with one aim of its voyage to allow a team of Chinese engineers and logistical staff to renovate one of the country’s two main research stations in the southern polar region. The two stories reflect the increasing attention that the two countries are paying to the Antarctic region. India has been involved in the Antarctic […]

H.G. Wells’ futuristic 1933 classic, “The Shape of Things of Come,” predicted a post-apocalyptic world in which humanity’s recovery would depend on the airplane as the primary mechanism for both travel and political rule — the benevolent “dictatorship of the air.” The book reflected Wells’ prescient fears of catastrophic world war and his faith in technology’s capacity to tame mankind’s worst instincts. A book due out in March entitled, “Aerotropolis: The Way We’ll Live Next,” is the closest thing to a real-world vision to rival that of Wells. The book, written by journalist Greg Lindsay, is based on the visionary […]

Leaders of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) are currently gathered in Astana, Kazakhstan, for the group’s first summit in more than a decade. The OSCE has many responsibilities due to its comprehensive agenda, but its most urgent task is to help mobilize greater support for Afghanistan. Although Afghanistan does not belong to the OSCE, several member states border the war-torn country, while many more have sent military forces to help combat the Taliban insurgents threatening the internationally recognized Afghan government. The challenges facing the OSCE in Afghanistan derive mainly from the porous borders between northern Afghanistan […]

On May 12, 2010, Minxin Pei wrote in an op-ed for the Diplomat that “what is most worrying about a possible North Korean collapse is that the key players in the region are not talking to each other, even informally, about such an eventuality.” Thanks to the Wikileaks release of a huge cache of U.S. diplomatic cables, we now know that this isn’t true. In February, a South Korean diplomat predicted the collapse of North Korea within a couple of years after the death of Kim Jong-Il, and argued that sufficient economic considerations could placate China for the loss of […]

Among the foreign policy issues on the U.S. Congress’ agenda during its lame duck session is the ratification of the New START Treaty, signed by Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev last April. The treaty is important in and of itself, because it reduces the American and Russian strategic nuclear arsenals and extends nuclear weapons verification measures interrupted when the START I treaty lapsed last December. But New START also represents a critical step in redefining the U.S.-Russian relationship, making it more than just an arms control arrangement. Russia is the world’s largest country, endowed with highly skilled human capital […]