Diplomacy & Politics Archive

In an election held Sunday to choose a replacement for former Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who died last month, Chavez’s anointed successor, Nicolas Maduro, narrowly beat rival Henrique Capriles for the presidency. Capriles has refused to concede the election, citing some 3,200 voting irregularities, and is demanding a recount. In separate email interviews, two Venezuela experts who spoke with Trend Lines agreed that while Maduro won the election, his narrow margin of victory represented a kind of defeat. “It leaves him seriously weakened,” said David Smilde, a sociology professor at the University of Georgia and senior fellow at the Washington […]

Five Indian soldiers serving with the United Nations peacekeeping operation in South Sudan were killed in an ambush last week that also left seven civilian U.N. staff dead and four more troops wounded. Such casualties are grimly familiar for the Indian army, which has lost more personnel on blue helmet missions than any other country’s military. But the attack capped off a difficult few weeks for India at the U.N., marked by diplomatic disputes over the rules of peacekeeping and the new Arms Trade Treaty. Cumulatively, these episodes may reinforce doubts about New Delhi’s commitment to the U.N. system. Although […]

Zimbabwe’s political and economic decline since 2000 has been a major preoccupation for South African policymakers, severely testing Pretoria’s ability to juggle often contradictory narratives in its foreign policy discourse: on one hand, a commitment to democracy and human rights, and on the other, liberation solidarity, the promotion of an African consensus and a residual anti-Western sentiment in the ruling African National Congress (ANC). With Zimbabwe now on the cusp of fresh elections, this issue is set to return to the top of the South African agenda. The elections will take place under a new constitution overwhelmingly endorsed by Zimbabwean […]

Malaysia has chosen May 5 as the date of national elections that will decide whether Prime Minister Najib Razak’s National Front, the multiethnic political coalition that has governed the country since independence, will hold on to power. The main opposition coalition, the People’s Alliance, which made gains in the 2008 elections, continues to close the National Front’s narrow lead in opinion polls. “This is a critical turning point for the country,” Bridget Welsh, associate professor of political science at Singapore Management University, told Trend Lines. “It will have to decide whether to stick with the incumbent government of 55 years, […]

The announcement this week that Jabhat al-Nusra (the Nusra Front), one of the main armed groups battling to take down the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, has formally announced its allegiance to al-Qaida could signal a major shift in Syria’s two-year-long civil war. It certainly complicates matters for the United States. Over the past several months, Washington has concentrated its efforts on two parallel but complementary tracks: forging a broad-based, secular-leaning, pro-Western provisional government that could take over the administration of areas where the government in Damascus has lost control; and encouraging different rebel military groups to develop a […]

In December, if only for a brief moment, the prospects of a brighter future for Venezuela-U.S. relations appeared on the horizon. With Hugo Chavez, Venezuela’s firebrand socialist president, having just returned to Cuba to undergo what would be his final cancer treatment, his vice president and anointed successor, Nicolas Maduro, announced that Caracas would engage in a dialogue with Washington to examine and possibly improve bilateral relations. Five months later, Chavez is dead, and this Sunday Venezuelans will vote in a snap election for a new president. The election will decide whether Chavez’s so-called Bolivarian revolution, a policy of social […]

Colombians under 65 cannot remember living in a country at peace. Internal armed conflict has raged almost continuously in the South American nation since 1948. With talks ongoing between the government and the larger of the country’s two leftist guerrilla groups, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), Colombians may soon discover what peace is like. But they may find it only a bit more peaceful or secure than what came before. The talks taking place in Havana, Cuba, which are the fourth peace process attempted with the FARC since 1982, have a better-than-even chance of resulting in an accord. […]

On April 1, India’s Supreme Court concluded a protracted legal battle between the Indian government and the pharmaceutical company Novartis, ruling that Indian companies could continue to produce low-cost generic versions of a drug the company had sought to patent. In an email interview, Sudip Chaudhuri, an economics professor at the Indian Institute of Management in Calcutta specializing in patents and the pharmaceutical industry, explained the background and likely impact of the ruling. WPR: What effect will the decision have on companies’ evergreening, or repatenting products after minor changes in their makeup, of pharmaceutical patents in India? Sudip Chaudhuri: Using […]

The Arab-Israeli conflict has never lost its power to conjure visions of Nobel Peace prizes among world diplomats, even as it has repeatedly thwarted the efforts of even the most skilled among them. Despite the occasional success, well-intentioned plans have also backfired disastrously, triggering new waves of deadly violence. As the Obama administration launches a new push for peace between Israelis and Palestinians, the watchword must be, “First, do no harm.” Forging a successful peace process that brings results would obviously create tremendous benefits for the local population and for America’s strategic interests. It is undeniably a worthy goal. But […]

A small sea of ink has been spilled lately over the “rise of Africa” as an exciting frontier market for investors from both advanced economies and other emerging markets. Africa’s relatively rapid growth rates, improved fiscal and debt management and improving political stability are painting a picture of the kind of robust economic prospects usually associated with India, China, Brazil and other middle-income economies. And despite remaining high risks associated with African markets, global investors increasingly find Africa’s potential returns compelling. For example, according to a study by the Boston Consulting Group, a hypothetical $100 investment in Africa’s 40 largest […]

In a speech in early April, World Bank President Jim Yong Kim declared that “extreme poverty,” defined as living on less than $1.25 a day, could be eradicated worldwide by the end of the next decade. In an email interview, Charles Kenny, a senior fellow at the Center on Global Development who has written on the Millennium Development Goals, discussed what ending extreme poverty means, and what it would take. WPR: What is the technical meaning behind World Bank President Jim Kim’s recent call to “end extreme poverty” by 2030? Charles Kenny: Kim is suggesting that we can reduce the […]

Under North Korea’s former dictator Kim Jong Il, crises followed a well-choreographed pattern. There would be provocation and sometimes outright aggression accompanied by paranoid, hostile and even hysterical rhetoric from Pyongyang. Eventually Kim would be mollified by some diplomatic concession or more assistance to keep the ramshackle North Korean economy from collapsing altogether, and things would return to normal — such as it was. However much this game frustrated the United States, Washington was fairly confident that it would not escalate into accidental war. Kim knew how far to push and when to back off. Unfortunately, the young Kim Jong […]

Georgia’s recent announcement of its intention to contribute to the European Union military training mission in Mali signals not only Tbilisi’s continued role as a reliable supplier of forces for Euro-Atlantic security missions, but also the Georgian military’s ambitions as a niche counterterrorism force. Under the new Georgian Dream coalition government, the Defense Ministry is embarking on a series of reforms to fit its force structure to this mission set. After the surprise victory of Bidzina Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition in Georgia’s October 2012 parliamentary elections, the new government was quick to reaffirm the country’s Western orientation. This included carrying […]

Over the weekend, Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto, who is on a tour of Asia that ends tomorrow, met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in southern China. Pena Nieto’s trip is part of an effort to develop closer bilateral ties between Mexico and China, after more than a decade of what the Financial Times has called “reciprocal coolness.” The trip “was predicated on the idea of engaging China in order that Chinese investors see Mexico as an optimal export platform into North America,” Francisco Gonzalez, associate professor and Riordan Roett chair in Latin American Studies at the Johns Hopkins University […]

Whoever succeeds Hugo Chavez as Venezuela’s president will inherit a country deeply marked by the late leader’s populist politics. At home, Chavez leaves behind a powerful political movement but many weakened government institutions. Regionally, the durability of the alliances he built on a foundation of cheap energy is uncertain. Meanwhile, the U.S. should seek opportunities to reframe its Venezuela policy for the post-Chavez era. Domestic Legacy After Chávez, Future of Venezuelan Democracy UnclearBy Catherine CheneyMarch 6, 2013 Despite Political Uncertainty, Venezuela Remains Stable — for NowBy David Smilde and Dimitris PantoulasMarch 5, 2013 Latin America’s Leftists Audition to Succeed ChávezBy […]

The new South Korean government of President Park Geun-hye finds itself in a difficult situation. On the one hand, it must respond to North Korea’s missile threats to avert more serious ones. On the other, it must do so without provoking Pyongyang or Beijing. Chinese officials are already concerned by South Korea’s strengthening security ties with the U.S. as well as by Seoul’s recent decision, supported by Washington, to acquire longer-range offensive ballistic missiles capable of reaching Chinese territory. But responding to the urgent North Korean threat requires bold action, and, despite Beijing’s complaints, the added pressure that closer U.S.-South […]

During a visit to Saudi Arabia in February, Japanese Industry Minister Toshimitsu Motegi reportedly offered cooperation on civil nuclear technology to help the kingdom boost oil exports by freeing up supplies currently used in domestic electricity generation. The offer came in the context of rising Saudi crude exports to Japan resulting from Tokyo’s post-Fukushima nuclear shutdowns as well as its declining imports from Iran. It also came at a time when the new Japanese government led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is looking to boost civil nuclear exports to support Japan’s flagging domestic industry. Given its plans for a massive […]