LIMA, Peru — As Peruvians return to the polls this Sunday for a second round of voting in an extremely tight presidential race, the outcome will likely be determined by voters’ fear and mistrust of the losing candidate rather than by enthusiasm for the winner and his or her platform. The latest polls show a technical tie between conservative Congresswoman Keiko Fujimori, 36, and leftist retired military officer Ollanta Humala, 48, with Fujimori ahead by less than the margin of error in most recent polls. Both candidates have striven to appeal to moderate voters while making populist campaign promises, but […]

It is time for President Barack Obama to initiate an informal, tripartite dialogue with King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev about stabilizing the global price of oil. Leaving the decision in the hands of speculators has not served the interests of any of these three countries. At midweek, the price, while coming down, still stood higher than $100 a barrel, with Brent crude currently trading at roughly $112 a barrel. Counterintuitively, oil producers are hoping the price descends further, because if oil gets too expensive, customers begin looking for other sources of energy. Last week, speaking […]

What’s Behind Russia’s Libya Shift?

One of the less-reported developments at last week’s G-8 summit was Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s about-face on the Libyan crisis. Medvedev called on Moammar Gadhafi to step down and added that Russia will not offer a safe haven to the beleaguered Libyan leader. Russia has previously been critical of NATO’s bombing campaign in Libya, and with reports now indicating that Moscow seeks to play a mediation role toward negotiating Gadhafi’s exit, close observers are questioning what prompted the policy shift. In an email interview with Trend Lines this week, Richard Weitz, who heads the Center for Political-Military Analysis at the […]

Global Insider: U.K.-France Defense Treaty

In May, France and the U.K. ratified the Defense and Security Cooperation Treaty, marking a major realignment of the countries’ post-financial crisis defense policies. In an email interview, Jolyon Howorth, an expert in European defense policy at Yale University, discussed the U.K.-France defense treaty. WPR: What are the main provisions of the treaty? Jolyon Howorth: The treaty aims to maximize the military potential of the two countries in terms of capacity, procurement and deployment. It envisages the development of a joint expeditionary force with land and naval elements; an integrated aircraft-carrier group allowing planes from each country to land on […]

AMSTERDAM — Backpackers around the world took notice when the Dutch government announced plans to ban sales of marijuana to tourists in the Netherlands. Some observers viewed the decision as part of a definitive move to the right in Dutch politics. The reality, however, is not so simple; the Netherlands is not about to become a conservative country. Rather than a move to the right, the latest news is one more piece of evidence that the old distinctions between left and right can no longer tell the full story in Dutch politics. Like in much of Europe, politics in the […]

When Brazil tried to join the ranks of the world’s diplomatic heavyweights, it did so loudly. In an attempt last year to convince the U.N. Security Council not to impose a third round of sanctions on Iran for refusing to freeze its uranium enrichment program, Brazil teamed up with Turkey to negotiate a nuclear fuel swap deal with Tehran. The maneuver failed: The council, under pressure from the U.S., U.K. and France, disregarded the agreement and went ahead with sanctions. It is perhaps no surprise, then, that when Dilma Rousseff took over as president of Brazil in January, she distanced […]

Yemen: Saleh’s Last Hurrah or More of the Same?

The collapse of negotiations toward a peaceful departure from power by Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh has resulted in a week of such chaotic violence it may well appear the nation is devolving back into civil war. But close observers say that what’s occurring in Yemen now is simply a continuation of the tactics that have kept Saleh in power since the 1970s. “He wants to provoke a military confrontation with any of the opposition groups, because he feels more comfortable with armed conflict than he does confronting a nonviolent, headless movement,” says Bernard Haykel, a professor of Near Eastern […]

Global Insider: China-Malaysia Relations

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao recently made an official state visit to Malaysia. In an email interview, Shee Poon Kim, a visiting professor in the Department of Global Politics and Economics at Tamkang University in Taiwan, discussed China-Malaysia relations. WPR: What is the recent history of China-Malaysia relations? Shee Poon Kim: On May 31, 1974, Malaysia became the first of the five founding ASEAN member states to establish formal diplomatic relations with China. Over the past 37 years, Malaysian relations with China have evolved from mutual hostility (1949-1970) to détente and political accommodation (1970-1981), to economic cooperation alongside political and security […]

Thailand’s call for the repatriation of more than 140,000 refugees from Myanmar is likely aimed at enhancing investment opportunities in the politically isolated country. Bangkok’s insistence that the refugees, who live in nine camps along Thailand’s western border, had become a burden came shortly after a report indicated that China had overtaken Thailand as Myanmar’s leading investor. On Feb. 21, Myanmar’s Weekly Eleven newspaper carried figures released by a Myanmar trade group showing that more than $3 billion in new investment from November 2010 to January 2011 had brought China’s cumulative investment since 1988 to $9.6 billion — slightly higher […]

In March, the Stimson Center released a report (.pdf) by Gordon Adams and Rebecca Williams reviewing U.S. security assistance programs. Titled “A New Way Forward,” the report argued that the United States should restructure its security assistance programs away from “security,” as defined in Cold War terms, and toward “governance,” which more accurately reflects U.S. interests in the post-War on Terror world. The difference is hardly trivial. “Security” assistance focuses on improving the tactical and operational capabilities of fielded armed forces, whether against domestic or international foes, while “governance” assistance aims to “strengthen state capacity in failing, fragile, collapsing and […]

With the U.N. in the global spotlight for its involvement in high-stakes missions in Libya, Sudan, Côte D’Ivoire and elsewhere, this World Politics Review special report examines the U.N. through articles published in the past year.Below are links to each article in this special report. U.N. Security Council New Members Make for a Real Security Council at Last Richard Gowan and Bruce D. Jones October 20, 2010 Indian Power and the United Nations Richard Gowan November 15, 2010 No U.N. Security Council Reform, No Problem Richard Weitz January 4, 2011 New Tools for New Times Bruce D. JonesJanuary 11, 2011 […]

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