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A poster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad with Arabic that reads “Welcome to victorious Syria. A poster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad with Arabic that reads “Welcome to victorious Syria,” is displayed on the border between Lebanon and Syria, July 20, 2018 (AP photo by Hassan Ammar).

The Syrian Civil War’s Never-Ending Endgame

Monday, June 8, 2020

The Syrian civil war that has decimated the country for nine years now, provoking a regional humanitarian crisis and drawing in actors ranging from the United States to Russia, appears to be drawing inexorably to a conclusion. President Bashar al-Assad, with the backing of Iran and Russia, seems to have emerged militarily victorious from the conflict, which began after his government violently repressed civilian protests in 2011. The armed insurgency that followed soon morphed into a regional and global proxy war that, at the height of the fighting, saw radical Islamist groups seize control over vast swathes of the country, only to lose it in the face of sustained counteroffensives by pro-government forces as well as a U.S.-led coalition of Western militaries.

The fighting is not yet fully over, though, with the northwestern Idlib region remaining outside of government control. Earlier this year, the Syrian army’s Russian-backed campaign to retake Idlib from the last remaining armed opposition groups concentrated there resulted in clashes with Turkish forces deployed to protect Ankara’s client militias. The skirmishes were a reminder that the conflict, though seemingly in its final stages, could still escalate into a regional conflagration. The situation in the northeast also remains volatile following the removal of U.S. forces from the border with Turkey, with Turkish, Syrian and Russian forces all now deployed in the region, alongside proxies and Syrian Kurdish militias.

The return to high-intensity fighting in Idlib has created yet another humanitarian crisis, sending waves of refugees toward the Turkish border and adding to the war’s already staggering humanitarian cost. The estimated death toll is 400,000 people, but it could actually be much higher. And at various points in the conflict, more than half of the country’s population was displaced. The United Nations Refugee Agency estimates that 5.6 million people have fled Syria since the fighting started, putting a significant strain on neighboring countries as well as Europe. Even as the conflict winds down, it is unclear when or if they will be able to return.

Once the fighting finally comes to an end, Assad will still face the challenge of rebuilding the country, including areas where he allegedly deployed chemical weapons against his own citizens. The question of who will foot the bill remains an open one. President Donald Trump has been eager to distance the U.S. from the situation in Syria. European countries are loathe to work with Assad. And Moscow is unlikely to take on the costs of reconstruction, which the United Nations has estimated at $250 billion.

WPR has covered the Syrian civil war in detail and continues to examine key questions about what will happen next. Will Russia and Turkey prevent the crisis in Idlib from escalating? Can Russia force the Assad regime to make key institutional reforms to satisfy Western nations’ conditions for helping to fund Syria’s reconstruction? What role will Iran and the militias it supports continue to play in the country? Below are some of the highlights of WPR’s coverage.

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Outside Powers and Coalitions

Syria is beginning to fall off of the international agenda. Though Russia and Turkey remain actively engaged, interest is waning among other actors, including the United States—a dramatic change from earlier stages of the conflict, when Syria served as a proxy battlefield for local and global powers alike. Moscow, at least, does not appear interested in surrendering its influence, though it is unclear just how much leverage the Kremlin has over Assad.

The Civil War & Domestic Politics

Having regained control over much of the country’s inhabited regions, Assad is now faced with the task of rebuilding Syria. But he does not have the money to do it, and the powers that do—the United States and Europe—say they are unwilling to hand over any funds without regime change. Assad, meanwhile, has said he is not even willing to consider institutional reforms that might satisfy some of his critics. That could spell a cycle of domestic crises ahead for Syria and its citizens.

The Fight Against the Islamic State

Though the Islamic State no longer retains control over any territory in Syria and lost its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, it has not been eradicated as a movement. It still retains a significant number of fighters and sympathizers who could pivot to insurgency and terror attacks, whether in Syria or elsewhere. That may prove more difficult to counter than the group’s previous iterations.

The Humanitarian Crisis

Despite waning international interest, the humanitarian crisis sparked by the Syrian civil war is far from over. The U.N. estimates that 13.1 million people are in need of assistance—a number that could continue to rise if the fighting in Idlib is not brought to an end. And the humanitarian crisis will persist if Syria does not find the resources to begin rebuilding.

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Editor’s note: This article was originally published in July 2019 and is regularly updated.

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