The presidents of Argentina, Ecuador, Colombia, Peru, Brazil and Chile at La Moneda presidential palace Santiago.

The then-presidents of Argentina, Ecuador and Peru, and the presidents of Brazil, Colombia and Chile at La Moneda presidential palace in Santiago, Chile, March 22, 2019 (AP photo by Esteban Felix).

After the End of the ‘Pink Tide,’ What’s Next for South America?

The Editors Wednesday, Dec. 15, 2021

It may not be a return of the “Pink Tide” of leftist governments that swept into power across South America in the early 2000s—and were largely swept out again amid a conservative backlash in the mid-2010s. But the region’s left has been showing signs of revival.

In Argentina’s October 2019 presidential election, the moderate-left Peronist candidate, Alberto Fernandez, ousted the market-friendly incumbent, Mauricio Macri, whose austerity measures and heavy borrowing triggered an economic crisis that cost him the presidency. Also in 2019, violent protests erupted in Colombia in September against mounting police brutality under law-and-order President Ivan Duque. And both Ecuador and Chile saw massive demonstrations that forced Ecuador’s government to backtrack on austerity measures and challenged Chile’s longstanding neoliberal economic model. More recently, in October 2020, Bolivia returned the Movement Toward Socialism to power in the first presidential election since Evo Morales was ousted.

The conservative wave that followed the Pink Tide is far from ebbing, though. The 2018 election of Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil was a particular blow to the region’s progressives, and he has justified their fears. His administration has curbed the fight against corruption and downplayed the severity of the coronavirus pandemic, even as he has continued to denigrate the country’s Indigenous communities and undermined the country’s democratic norms. In Uruguay, conservatives took control of the government in 2019 from the leftist Broad Front coalition that had been in power for a decade and a half. More recently, conservative Guillermo Lasso won Ecuador’s presidential election in May, and Argentina’s ruling Peronist government suffered a major setback in midterm elections in November.

Venezuela’s regime remains as the last holdout of South America’s Pink Tide. But the Bolivarian revolution that began under former President Hugo Chavez has transformed into an economic and humanitarian disaster under his successor, Nicolas Maduro. The attempt to dislodge Maduro and replace him with Juan Guaido in 2018 gained the support of the U.S. as well as governments across the region and the world. But that effort flagged, and the opposition’s decision to boycott December’s parliamentary elections due to fears they would be as rigged as Maduro’s 2018 presidential reelection cost it control of the legislative body that had been the legal foundation of Guaido’s claim to legitimacy as interim president. Guaido is now struggling to keep his movement from fading into irrelevance.

Major advances in the region are also in danger. Colombia’s fragile peace process faltered after Duque’s hostility to the deal resulted in half-hearted implementation of its measures. Meanwhile, the illicit drug trade is booming, as is organized crime, even as corruption continues to flourish. Now the coronavirus pandemic has added another immense challenge to South America’s public health systems and economies, with implications for leaders who failed to take the threat seriously.

Prior to the pandemic, Russia and China sought to deepen trade ties with countries across the region. America, threatened by Moscow and Beijing’s newfound interest, has accused them of propping up corrupt governments and is taking steps to shore up its own partnerships in South America. How prominent a role the region will play in President Joe Biden’s Latin America policy remains to be seen.

WPR has covered South America in detail and continues to examine key questions about what will happen next. How will the health and economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic affect the region’s political landscape? What will flagging international support for Guaido mean for Venezuela’s political and humanitarian crises? And what steps will Washington take to counter Russian and Chinese influence in the region? Below are some of the highlights of WPR’s coverage.

Our Latest Coverage

Lasso’s Honeymoon Comes to a Crashing Halt in Ecuador

Ecuadorian President Guillermo Lasso enjoyed a stable first six months in office, riding a wave of popularity brought about by a successful vaccination drive, market friendly reforms and a raised international profile. But political difficulties and a crime wave punctuated by a series of prison riots could stall his progress.

[SPECIAL OFFER: Want to learn more? Get full access to World Politics Review for 12 weeks for just $12 and read all the articles linked here to get up to speed on this important issue.]

Politics

Right-wing and center-right governments now control Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Uruguay and Paraguay. In part a reaction to the years of leftist rule, the right’s rise has also been fueled by the emergence of major corruption scandals that tainted politicians and parties across the region. But the left has demonstrated resilience as a political force. In Bolivia, for instance, the party of former President Evo Morales regained power in the first elections since his ouster. Peruvian voters also opted for the far-left candidate Pedro Castillo in that country’s recent presidential election, although for many it was due to a lack of other acceptable options. Now, however, the coronavirus has consumed the political and economic agenda across the region.

How Argentina’s midterm elections upended the ruling Peronist government, in Argentina’s Midterm Elections Shake Up the Political Landscape
What’s driving infighting at the top of Argentina’s government, in In Argentina, Fernandez vs. Fernandez Is Bad News for Everyone
Why Chile’s Indigenous peoples are at the center of the process to draft a new constitution, in Indigenous Peoples Have a Lot Riding on Chile’s New Constitution
How Bolsonaro is taking a page out of the Trump playbook, in Bolsonaro Is Declaring War on Brazil’s Democracy

Security and Drugs

The drug trade is booming, particularly in Colombia, where cocaine production is at an all-time high. That has fueled violence and put state legitimacy at risk across swathes of the continent. Some leaders, desperate for a solution, are responding with growing militarization. Meanwhile, labor advocates, Indigenous leaders and civil society remain vulnerable to political violence.

What recent deadly prison riots in Ecuador reveal about Latin America’s prison reform efforts, in Reforming Latin America’s Overcrowded Prisons Won’t Be Easy
Why many Colombians are angry about the extradition to the U.S. of the country’s drug lords, in A Colombian Drug Lord’s Victims Protest His Extradition to the U.S.
Why the ELN’s factions can’t agree on whether to seek peace or continue fighting in Colombia, in Internal Divisions Hamper Peace Overtures From Colombia’s ELN
What the death of Abimael Guzman reveals about Peru’s failure to address the legacy of the Shining Path, in Peru Misses Another Chance to Confront the Shining Path’s Legacy

Trade and Economic Development

Moscow and Beijing have been eager to increase their economic ties to South America, leveraging the unease that was caused by former President Donald Trump’s mixed messages to the region. Washington has pushed back, warning that the two powers are looking to sow disorder on the continent. Meanwhile, there is evidence that South American economies will not emerge unscathed from the U.S.-China trade war, despite growing trade with Asia and Europe. And all that was before the coronavirus pandemic hit.

Why Ecuador would be the perfect test case for a new debt-based approach to addressing climate change, in Ecuador Highlights the Potential for Greening Latin America’s Debt Crunch
Why U.S. President Joe Biden is rolling out his Build Back Better World initiative in Latin America, in Biden Aims to Challenge China in Latin America With B3W
What recent tensions reveal about Mercosur’s internal contradictions, in Mercosur’s Divisions Are Pushing It to a Breaking Point
Why Guyana could fall prey to the “resource curse,” in A Political Crisis Threatens to Derail Guyana’s Oil Boom

Venezuela

The humanitarian crisis in Venezuela is deepening, even as the standoff between Maduro and the opposition seems to have been won by the Chavista regime. Though his claim to the presidency was backed by much of the continent, along with Washington, Guaido failed to dislodge Maduro. Now Maduro, who oversaw the country’s economic freefall, appears to have decisively sidelined Guaido, in part due to the support of the Venezuelan military—and Russia.

How Venezuela’s opposition might benefit from a recent political opening, in Venezuela’s Opposition Could Become Relevant Again
How Venezuela’s opposition is testing the prospects of negotiations with the Maduro regime, in Venezuela’s Opposition Shifts Gears on Talks With Maduro
Why Maduro’s hold on the country is more tenuous than it seems, in Armed Gangs and Warlords Are Taking Over Venezuela
What’s driving the fighting between Venezuela’s military and armed groups on the border with Colombia, in Venezuela’s ‘Unprecedented’ Military Offensive Raises Border Tensions With Colombia

Corruption

Corruption scandals, which proliferated under the left-wing administrations of the Pink Tide, helped drive the ascent of the right. But the scandal involving payoffs by the Brazilian construction giant Odebrecht across the region has also taken down center-right politicians. Corruption remains high on the list of voters’ grievances, even as the pandemic has increased both the opportunities for and the costs of graft and impunity. Unless it is brought under control, corruption might ultimately undermine the region’s democratic institutions.

Why both candidates in Peru’s presidential election spelled trouble for the country’s anti-corruption campaign, in Either Way, Peru’s Election Is Bad News for Anti-Graft Efforts
Why now is the wrong time for South America to let up on its anti-corruption efforts, in Latin America’s Anti-Corruption Drive Has Stalled at the Worst Possible Time
Why tackling money laundering is also key to the fight against the coronavirus pandemic, in Money Laundering Could Stifle Latin America’s Response to COVID-19
How Peru’s “accidental president” staked his anti-corruption legacy on snap congressional elections, in Will Vizcarra’s Anti-Corruption Gamble Pay Off in Peru’s Elections?

Read all of our coverage of South America.