Corridors of Power: Blair’s Long Goodbye, Army Art and More

TONY'S LONG GOODYE -- Until recently the received wisdom in Whitehall was that British Prime Minister Tony Blair would announce his resignation in early May, with Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown stepping into his shoes in June. But political developments have forced the pace of his departure, says a knowledgeable insider in London, and he will very probably quit 10 Downing Street in early March.
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Some time around May, the Labor government faces a very difficult election in Scotland where its strength is being challenged by the Scottish Nationalist Party; and the last thing Brown -- a Scotsman -- wants to do is to start his leadership with his Scottish base weakened. The party hopes that if Brown takes over earlier it will boost the prestige of Scottish Labor, and give Brown time to campaign as the party leader.

Blair, of course, has other problems. Iraq is the permanent millstone, exacerbated by the Bush administration's obvious indecision about what to do next. But Afghanistan is rapidly catching up as another problem area for the prime minister. The NATO commander in Kabul, Britain's Gen. David Richards, has privately told Blair that to defeat the Taliban threat and return the country to stability he needs another 12,000 troops in addition to the 35,000 he has already (including 7,500 from Britain). He will not get them.