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A man works in a metal workshop in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, China A man works in a metal workshop in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, China, Jan. 17, 2020 (FeatureChina photo by Long Wei via AP Images).

Why the Outlook for Global Economic Growth Remains Fragile in 2020

Tuesday, Jan. 21, 2020

Trade disruptions and sluggish investment helped drive global economic growth last year to its lowest level since the Great Recession. Even with the recent cease-fire in the U.S.-China trade war, the World Bank expects only a modest uptick in growth globally in 2020—if trade tensions don’t flare back up and spook investors again. These are among the key conclusions of the Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report.

Among the reasons for pessimism is that the “phase one” deal signed last week between the U.S. and China will not remove the tariffs on most U.S. imports from China. Meanwhile, continued weakness in their manufacturing sectors is expected to dampen growth prospects in the United States, other advanced countries and China. Moreover, the World Bank assesses that the potential threats to growth are more numerous than the potential upside surprises, with a particularly large question mark hanging over the stability of the trade truce between Washington and Beijing. ...

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