Turkey and Iraq Illustrate Two Sides of the Middle East’s Strongman Problem

The Middle East has a long history of authoritarianism, and the legacy of that history is illustrated in contrasting ways by two key states in the region. Turkey, a flawed but functioning democracy for most of a century, is returning to a more authoritarian model, while Iraq has replaced its strongman with a more normal political leader, provoking nostalgia for the old system. The U.S. has some leverage to push both states to strike the right balance between too little or too much power at the top.

Before the Arab Spring, political scientists examining the durability of authoritarianism in the Middle East tried to understand why states in the region resisted the global evolution to democracy. The 2011 uprisings seemed to have revealed a genuine demand for political change. But in today’s chaotic environment, the yearning for a decisive leader who can provide security and get results appears to have trumped the desire for political openings, at least for now. That’s what led to the reversal of messy democracy in Egypt in 2013. Reports abound that Iraqis, even those who rejoiced in the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003, now regret the change. It’s reminiscent of the mood in Russia in the initial post-Soviet period, when normal citizens were not prepared for daily life in the absence of top-down control, and where few understood the benefits and costs of living in a more democratic culture. ...