Global Insights: Afghanistan’s Transition Meltdown?

Global Insights: Afghanistan’s Transition Meltdown?

The International Crisis Group (ICG) issued a report yesterday titled, “Afghanistan: The Long, Hard Road to the 2014 Transition.” Although the report focuses on the political problems that Afghanistan faces, the country’s security, economic and diplomatic challenges are perhaps even more serious.

According to the ICG, “Afghanistan is hurtling toward a devastating political crisis as the government prepares to take full control of security in 2014.” The group’s senior Afghanistan analyst, Candace Rondeaux, details how the Afghanistan National Security Forces (ANSF) are “overwhelmed and underprepared for the transition,” even as Afghan President Hamid Karzai “seems more interested in perpetuating his own power by any means rather than ensuring credibility of the political system and long-term stability.”

Rondeaux warns that, unless urgent remedial actions are taken, Afghanistan “is on course for another set of fraudulent elections . . . that could undermine what little hope remains for stability.” The resulting disillusionment, she fears, will lead to a collapse in the regime’s political legitimacy and cause Afghans to turn to the Taliban and other political alternatives.

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