In a nationwide referendum Sunday, Ecuadorians voted overwhelmingly to approve nine measures giving President Daniel Noboa more tools to crack down on criminal gangs that have fueled violence across the country in recent years. The security-related measures included authorizing the use of the military in domestic law enforcement, stiffer sentences for drug-related crimes and tighter gun control near prisons. Voters rejected two other measures related to controversial economic reforms. (Associated Press)
The referendum results are a clear win for Noboa on the central plank of his presidency so far, which is to find a way out of Ecuador’s spiraling security crisis. The referendum comes three months after he declared a “state of internal armed conflict” and deployed the military in the fight against the country’s gangs, moves that won him high approval ratings.
The fact that he presented a clear referendum to Ecuador’s voters indicates that he has learned from the mistakes of his predecessor, former President Guillermo Lasso. As the security crisis worsened in early 2023, Lasso also held a referendum, but it included a number of measures seemingly designed to bolster his political power rather than being strictly focused on security-related policies. Ultimately, Lasso resigned after being ensnared in a scandal related to his possession of offshore bank accounts and unproven allegations that he used those accounts to avoid paying taxes. His resignation triggered the snap presidential election that Noboa won last year.
Noboa has now wisely taken care that his security crackdown maintains democratic legitimacy and is inscribed in Ecuadorian law. But his other recent steps show worse judgement—particularly the ill-advised April 5 police raid of the Mexican Embassy in Quito to arrest former Ecuadorian Vice President Jorge Glas, who had taken refuge in the embassy to avoid accountability for his two corruption convictions. While Noboa presented that raid as another example of his “tough on crime” posture, the raid’s violation of Vienna Convention protections for embassies and diplomats triggered almost universal condemnation from governments in the region and beyond.
That backlash will make it harder to enlist a regional response to Ecuador’s security crisis, which will be necessary to tackle the transnational dynamics involved. Torpedoing ties with Mexico was particularly short-sighted given that some of the foreign gangs contributing to Ecuador’s security crisis originate from Mexico. Because Noboa is serving out the rest of Lasso’s term, which ends in mid-2025, he will face voters sooner rather than later, so he will no doubt run on the success of this referendum and the security measures it authorizes. But he still has some very challenging economic and energy issues to deal with, including a regional drought that has decimated the hydropower production on which Ecuador relies heavily for its electricity. In attempting to build on the political momentum created by this referendum victory, Noboa would do well to avoid some of the excesses of Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele in addressing that country’s security challenges. If he does, Noboa will have offered the region an alternative model for achieving results without turning democratic freedoms into a casualty of his war on gangs.
Palestinians in the West Bank went on a general strike Sunday to protest an Israeli military raid on a refugee camp the day before, during which 10 Palestinians were killed. The raid is just the latest episode in an ongoing Israeli crackdown in the West Bank since Hamas’ attack on Israel in October 2023.
As Hugh Lovatt wrote earlier this month, while international attention is focused on the war in Gaza, the West Bank continues to be engulfed by violence. In the past six months, more than 400 Palestinians, including more than 100 children, have been killed by Israeli forces and settlers in the West Bank, putting heightened pressure on the dysfunctional Palestinian political leadership to respond.