Articles written by Nikolas Gvosdev
By Nikolas Gvosdev
03 Feb 2012 |
Column
Now that the Western powers have endorsed the Arab League’s call for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down, even if that formulation is ultimately edited out of any U.N. Security Council resolution, it is time to start making plans for the contingencies that may erupt on "the day after." This means moving beyond the optimistic scenarios most Western policymakers continue to cling to.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
27 Jan 2012 |
Column
America’s current standoff with Iran over the direction of Tehran’s nuclear program is only one symptom of a larger problem. As more countries to turn to atomic energy, some of these nuclear newcomers will want to control the entire fuel cycle on their own territory. The U.S. approach to Iran’s nuclear program offers no guidance for coping with the resulting spread of nuclear technology.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
20 Jan 2012 |
Column
With the possibility of a clash between the U.S. and Iran over Tehran's nuclear program looming, one cannot help but wonder: Is it worth it for Iran, now grappling with increasingly onerous sanctions, to continue its pursuit of a nuclear capacity? By all indications, Iran's leaders believe so, based on their read of recent history, by which only nuclear weapons provide a deterrent to U.S. intervention.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
13 Jan 2012 |
Column
President Barack Obama’s strategic guidance to the Defense Department is a first attempt to begin prioritizing defense missions as well as geographic regions that are most vital to U.S. interests. However, in order to preserve some core U.S. foreign policy objectives, it will be important that further clarification take place. In particular, two areas of concern should be included in the discussion.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
06 Jan 2012 |
Column
According to an unconfirmed report this week, Vice President Joe Biden has been tasked with overseeing U.S.-China relations. While improvements at the margins can be expected, Biden’s appointment is unlikely to achieve any major breakthroughs. In part, this is because some fundamental U.S. and Chinese interests are at loggerheads, and even an improved dialogue mechanism cannot bridge the divide.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
23 Dec 2011 |
Column
Another round of protests is scheduled for Russia on Saturday, raising the question of whether a “color revolution" capable of toppling the government is in the cards. While Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has darkly warned about Western efforts to support the protest movements, for a major political shift to take place in Russia over the next several months, several preconditions must be in place.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
16 Dec 2011 |
Column
The Obama administration entered office three years ago with high hopes that it could repair America’s relationships with other key powers in the world. While some successes were achieved, Washington closes out 2011 facing deteriorating relationships with China, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Russia, and can expect only limited support from its major Western allies in managing a host of global hotspots.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
09 Dec 2011 |
Column
The recent elections in Egypt and Russia have important lessons for both Washington and Beijing about the limits of authoritarianism and Western-style liberalism. Beijing must be concerned about how neither the Kremlin nor Egypt’s military could “guarantee” the election results. And though the U.S. may take comfort in the fact that the elections took place at all, the results are troubling.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
02 Dec 2011 |
Column
If national security flows from economic strength, then the ongoing global economic crisis is poised to strike at one of the more underappreciated tools in the security kit -- the checkbook. We’re all familiar with the term “checkbook diplomacy.” But “checkbook security” has played a largely unsung role in America’s approach to national security over the past decade.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
18 Nov 2011 |
Column
An unintended side benefit of Kenya's military operation in Somalia has been its impact on piracy, with Somali pirate groups scrambling to wrap up their activities before Kenyan troops reach the port of Kismayo. Kenya is by no means a major military power. Yet, its army seems to have accomplished what several years of multinational naval deployments failed to do. This development raises two larger questions.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
11 Nov 2011 |
Column
The latest IAEA report on Iran’s nuclear program is bad news for the Obama administration. Given the “musical chairs” nature of U.S. politics, where the person left standing when the music stops loses, the blame for Tehran getting the bomb will fall squarely on President Barack Obama’s shoulders, even though one could quite fairly apportion a fair share to his predecessors.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
04 Nov 2011 |
Column
Scarcely was the ink dry on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s interview with Time magazine extolling U.S. global leadership than the Palestinian bid for membership in UNESCO called into question her optimistic appraisal of American influence around the world. The UNESCO vote represents a major setback at a time when the U.S. was beginning to dust off talk of being the “indispensable nation.”
By Nikolas Gvosdev
28 Oct 2011 |
Column
In my WPR column two weeks ago, I argued that a key challenge facing U.S. policymakers in the coming decade was in defining how the U.S. “should prioritize its interests, commitments and partnerships.” A number of recent articles and reports suggest that a broad consensus is indeed emerging, and that when it comes to U.S. foreign policy priorities, all roads lead to Asia.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
21 Oct 2011 |
Column
An unfortunate legacy of America's "sole superpower" status is the tendency to over-emphasize Washington's agency in shaping the global environment and downplay the role of others. It may sound like a truism, but domestic political factors beyond Washington's control will continue to have an impact on the United States' ability to achieve its objectives in vital regions around the world.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
14 Oct 2011 |
Column
It is a cardinal rule of American politics that elections are decided by domestic issues, but when a contest is particularly close, foreign policy concerns can often play an important role in the margins. The U.S. presidential election could be an opportunity for the candidates to present their contrasting visions of how the U.S. should prioritize its interests, commitments and partnerships. So far, few have done so.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
07 Oct 2011 |
Column
Russia and China's veto of a U.N. Security Council resolution condemning the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has attracted much attention. Generating less discussion is the fact that India, Brazil and South Africa abstained from the vote. Their abstention has implications for the "responsibility to protect" doctrine as well as for America's relationships with the rising democracies of the South.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
30 Sep 2011 |
Column
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's announcement that he would not stand for re-election came as a surprise to those who were expecting a continuation of the Medvedev-Putin tandem. At the same time, the simplistic analysis that Medvedev was only a seat-warmer for Vladimir Putin until the latter could reclaim the presidency is not helpful in understanding the direction Russian politics has taken -- and will take.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
23 Sep 2011 |
Column
French President Nicolas Sarkozy's compromise proposal for Palestinian statehood involves a "precise timetable" of negotiations that would produce a final status agreement between Palestinians and Israelis in a year's time. The proposal's utility as a practical means of generating an actual solution is minimal, but it could represent a face-saving off-ramp way for the U.S. from the current confrontation.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
16 Sep 2011 |
Column
The strictures of the Cold War imposed a certain discipline on the process of deciding whether and when to militarily intervene in a given conflict. By contrast, judging from the past decade, it might seem that the decision of whether or not to intervene has become entirely arbitrary. But on closer examination, we can begin to see the general outlines of some criteria that have guided these determinations.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
09 Sep 2011 |
Column
Post-Gadhafi Libya is set to become the next major test of two competing approaches to international affairs -- the "gratitude doctrine" of the Western alliance and the "strict neutrality" practiced by Beijing. Both approaches represent attempts to balance the risks involved with taking sides in domestic uprisings with the substantial but uncertain payoffs that often follow them. And both have a mixed record in the past.