Articles written by Thomas P.M. Barnett
By Thomas P.M. Barnett
30 Jan 2012 |
Column
The American political discourse is rife with fear-threat reactions regarding rising China, with one recurring theme being the superiority of Beijing's “state capitalism” model of economic development. But China is now reaching the same boiling point that America did in the late-19th century: It can either pursue a progressive agenda or suffer continued attempts at revolution from below.
By Thomas P.M. Barnett
23 Jan 2012 |
Column
Human life expectancy at birth, which doubled over the course of the 20th century, now seems destined to experience a similarly bold leap across the 21st century. When it does, it will shift human thinking about population control from its present focus on the outset of life to the increasingly delayed final curtain. But the technological advances are likely to come faster than our political systems can handle.
By Thomas P.M. Barnett
16 Jan 2012 |
Column
Throughout globalization's historical expansion from Europe to North America to Asia, the last region "in" has become the integrator of note for the next region "up." Europe was the primary investor, customer and integrator for the U.S. economy in its rise, and America subsequently "paid it forward" with East Asia. Recently, it has been Asia's turn, primarily through China, to pay it forward once again with Africa.
By Thomas P.M. Barnett
09 Jan 2012 |
Column
Late last week the Obama administration began unveiling its supremely focused rationale behind future defense cuts with the release of a strategic statement that suggests there is only one path we can take if we are to maintain our global leadership. If this declaration doesn’t warm the heart of every pre- or post-Sept. 11 neocon and believer in the primacy of U.S. military power, then nothing will.
By Thomas P.M. Barnett
02 Jan 2012 |
Column
Last year was a tough one in terms of global economics, humanitarian disasters and political leadership among the world's great powers. But it was also the year of the Arab Spring and hints of similar developments in Myanmar, Russia and Ethiopia. So while the year's "fundamentals" weren't so good, it left us with plenty to be grateful for. Keeping all that in mind, here is my foreign policy wish list for 2012.
By Thomas P.M. Barnett
19 Dec 2011 |
Column
Much of what drives America’s current phobias regarding China stems from the dual assumptions of America’s terminal decline and China’s perpetual ascension. We are thus led to believe that China no longer needs the U.S. and that America can do nothing, short of increasing military pressure, to constrain China's rise to global hegemony. On all scores, nothing could be further from the truth.
By Thomas P.M. Barnett
12 Dec 2011 |
Column
The recent controversy in India over a plan to allow multinational retail chains mount joint ventures with local firms highlights the country’s reification of agricultural village life -- a primary reason why India lags behind fellow economic risers Brazil and China. If India is going to capitalize on its demographic dividend, it will have to embrace urbanization and industrialization with far more gusto.
By Thomas P.M. Barnett
05 Dec 2011 |
Column
Washington's triumphant energy-independence narrative surrounding Western Hempishpere sources of hydrocarbons is a case of clutching at straws in hard economic times. Yes, the energy bonanza is real, even as we are still figuring out the environmental risks. But these developments hardly place America in the 21st-century driver’s seat, much less allow us to continue lording it over rising China.
By Thomas P.M. Barnett
28 Nov 2011 |
Column
It is hard to think of a period in the past five decades in which this country was more painfully bereft of national leadership than now. And between an isolated president, a House-controlling GOP that “has gone nuts,” and a 2012 campaign shaping up to be too negative to deliver a mandate, things are likely to get worse. Nowhere will the impact be more destabilizing than in U.S.-China relations.
By Thomas P.M. Barnett
21 Nov 2011 |
Column
Barack Obama's 2008 presidential campaign spoke about healing the rift that had developed between the U.S. and the rest of the world during the presidency of George W. Bush. And once in office, Obama’s global “apology tour,” as some wags dubbed it, struck a heartfelt chord overseas. But from Latin America to Africa, Asia and the Middle East, the promised change is nowhere to be seen.
By Thomas P.M. Barnett
14 Nov 2011 |
Column
The International Atomic Energy Agency’s latest report on Iran’s nuclear program created the usual flurry of op-eds championing preventative “next steps.” But there are none. Once the U.S. went into both Iraq and Afghanistan, the question went from being, “How do we prevent Iran from getting the Bomb?” to “How do we handle Iran’s Bomb?”
By Thomas P.M. Barnett
07 Nov 2011 |
Column
Whenever the U.S. encounters periods in which incomes go flat or decline, it typically moves down self-destructive pathways. We turn on immigrants and fight the world on trade. We pass restrictive and spiteful laws, and find other countries' investments suspicious, no matter how much we may need them. That effectively sums up where we are now, and nowhere more so than in our relationship with China.
By Thomas P.M. Barnett
31 Oct 2011 |
Column
Having reached 7 billion today, the trajectory of global population growth will proceed somewhat more slowly toward our eighth billion. Even with such a plateau-ing, the growth of the world’s middle class will raise living standards in emerging economies. That may seem like a Malthusian scenario, but the future global middle-class’ standard of living might not require Western consumption levels.
By Thomas P.M. Barnett
24 Oct 2011 |
Column
As part of a "big think" forecast project commissioned by an intelligence community sponsor, I've begun to think about the future geography of global security. As often with this kind of project, I find myself falling into list-making mode as I contemplate slides for the brief. So here are nine big structural issues that I think any such presentation must include.
By Thomas P.M. Barnett
17 Oct 2011 |
Column
The Pentagon is convinced that the Chinese military threat to the United States in Asia is profound, that the most likely great-power war conflict will be over Taiwan or the South China Sea, and that the primary trigger will be China's burgeoning nationalism. But the belief that rampant nationalism will trigger an eventual conflict is so crucial because of the structural implausibility of the other scenarios.
By Thomas P.M. Barnett
10 Oct 2011 |
Column
"Resource wars" enthusiasts worldwide have a new and unexpected poster child: "zero problems with neighbors" Turkey. But while Ankara is beside itself over Israel's recent moves to cooperate with Cyprus on surveying its Eastern Mediterranean seabed for possible natural gas deposits, the mounting war of words between Turkey and Israel, which includes some military preparations, amounts to a "storm in a teacup."
By Thomas P.M. Barnett
03 Oct 2011 |
Column
Because it is part of the intelligence community, the National Intelligence Council cannot forecast dramatic changes in the United States, as that would simply be too politicized a judgment. So its global futures reports tend to read like Shakespeare's "Hamlet," with the central character being the least interesting, least decisive and least capable of growing in response to events and the actions of others.
By Thomas P.M. Barnett
26 Sep 2011 |
Column
The real clash of civilizations in the 21st century will be not over religion, but over food. As the emerging East and surging South achieve appreciable amounts of disposable income, they're taking on a Western-style diet. The resulting rise in health costs will trigger a clash between nanny-state types hell-bent on "reining in" a number of globalized industries and those preferring a free-market stance.
By Thomas P.M. Barnett
19 Sep 2011 |
Column
Thanks to the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and the wars they spawned, many people around the world think they're living through the most violent period in human history. Well, that simply isn't true, as the most recent Human Security Report from Canada's Simon Fraser University makes clear. Although the report credits the U.N. for this historic shift, the truth is that it was America that made it possible.
By Thomas P.M. Barnett
12 Sep 2011 |
Column
The 10th anniversary of Sept. 11 has garnered America almost as much schadenfreude from the world as the original attacks did. Back in 2001, the line was that we had it coming to us for lording it over the world since the Cold War's end. Today, it takes the form of writing off our alleged "hegemony" in light of the shifts in global power over the past decade, a claim that is as absurd the previous one was insulting.