The Philippine Coast Guard opened fire on a Taiwanese fishing vessel two weeks ago, killing a Taiwanese fisherman and provoking a diplomatic deadlock between the Philippines and Taiwan in a period of growing tensions over disputed waters in the region. more
Germany has announced it will provide up to 800 troops to the NATO training contingent that will replace the ISAF mission in Afghanistan after 2014, a notable move in Europe’s current climate of budgetary austerity. With few bilateral interests at play, Berlin’s decision, and similar indications from Italy, raises the question of what the continental European powers’ long-term strategic goals are in Afghanistan. more
Chinese strategists likely see the prospect of a U.S. intervention in Syria as very beneficial to China. This might seem counterintuitive, given that Beijing has blocked efforts in the U.N. to authorize action in Syria. But while China is not interested in legitimizing U.S. involvement, Beijing would quickly seize the opportunity to take advantage should the U.S. decide to entangle itself in Syria. more
China's recent incursion into Indian territory along their disputed border in eastern Kashmir brings to the fore the unpredictability of Chinese foreign policy implementation and Beijing's frequent recourse to low-level aggression. Despite a general trend toward deepening cooperation between China and India, the incident lowers hopes that China's new leadership will clear up uncertainty in bilateral relations. more
The victory by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan’s national elections offers the U.S. an opportunity to develop and execute a strategy for improving the troubled relationship with Islamabad. Although the Obama administration has defined detailed goals for what it would like to achieve in Afghanistan, as well as strategies for attaining them, U.S. officials have yet to do the same for Pakistan.
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Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is beginning talks to form a new government in Pakistan after winning the country’s general elections held over the weekend. more
Pakistan’s elections Saturday will be the first time in the country's 66-year history that a democratically elected civilian government completed its five-year term, ceding power to a three-month caretaker government that will oversee elections. The increasingly unpopular governing PPP will likely be replaced by one of two rightist parties, the PML-N or the PTI, with odds heavily favoring the former. more
The Obama administration’s pivot away from the Middle East and toward Asia is based on the belief that the U.S. has underinvested in the Asia-Pacific, where the bulk of its future opportunities and challenges lie. As America rebalances, a defense white paper from its most reliable ally in the region, Australia, should be closely read in Washington. Its message is that if the U.S. is rebalancing, so is Australia. more
India’s foreign minister visited Tehran in the first week of May, where he signed a number of agreements, including for the expansion of the strategically important Chabahar Port. The thawing of bilateral ties reflects the critical interest that the two sides share in ensuring stability in Afghanistan. Clearly the scheduled U.S. military withdrawal is driving the new diplomatic engagement between India and Iran. more
Taiwan and Japan recently signed an important East China Sea fishing rights agreement after 17 years of negotiations. The deal represents a striking concession from Japan and is a good policy outcome for the government in Taiwan. President Ma Ying-jeou has successfully reminded Japan that Taiwan cannot be ignored, while avoiding irritating Washington. The least satisfied party affected by the deal will be China. more
As the immediate sense of crisis fades on the Korean Peninsula, the longer-term cycle of provocation and response remains in place. North Korea's nuclear weapons and missile capabilities continue to grow, and South Korea is feeling the pressure to respond by building its own capabilities. Meanwhile, there are signs that China's resolve to back the North may be wavering. And while the U.S. response to North Korea seems to have worked in the short run, Washington needs to stay prepared for all contingencies. more
South Korean President Park Geun-hye is currently in the United States, where she will meet with President Barack Obama at the White House, attend a special dinner to commemorate the 60th anniversary of the U.S.-South Korean alliance and address a joint session of Congress, among other activities. She will also travel to New York and Los Angeles, but not to other countries, underscoring the trip’s significance. more
In elections over the weekend, the ruling coalition in Malaysia, which has been in power for 56 years, won 133 out of 222 seats in parliament, despite apparently having lost the popular vote. more
In an email interview, Corey Wallace, a teaching fellow at the University of Auckland who studies international security and Japan’s regional relations, explained the development of the Japan-Vietnam defense relationship and what it means for each country’s tensions with China. more
There has been a lot of talk in recent days about “red lines” and the strength of American resolve. Much of it has revolved around the possibility that chemical weapons may have been used in the Syrian civil war as well as allegations that China has not fulfilled commitments it made to resolve the Chen Guangchen affair. But red lines are most effective when there is already a pre-existing commitment to act. more
India’s May 2014 general election will focus, as it always has, on the need to fight poverty, reduce inequality and foster economic growth. And yet, more than ever before, the issue of corruption will play a pre-eminent role in guiding the voters’ decision. That’s because the Indian people are gradually but decisively coming to believe that endemic corruption is one of the greatest obstacles in their path. more
The crisis in Mali put the Malian Tuareg community at the center of international security concerns. But for all the attention that the armed uprising in northern Mali received, little effort has been made to develop an understanding of the internal politics of the Tuareg community. In the current situation, clan politics, religion and personal conflicts all play an important role in shaping developments. more
The relationship between the Chinese Communist Party and the People’s Liberation Army was historically symbiotic, without functional differentiation or institutional boundaries. With the rise of Deng Xiaoping, institutional boundaries between the party and the army became clearer. Under Presidents Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, Chinese civil-military relations have been transformed from a state of symbiosis to one in which the PLA has quasi-institutional autonomy in its relations with the CCP. more
Australia last sat on the Security Council in 1985-1986, and there was no great enthusiasm when the current Labor government announced it would seek a temporary seat for the current period. Though critics said it was unlikely to succeed, Australia won a decisive vote on the first ballot. And while most Australians cared little about the outcome, it was, in fact, an important victory for Australian diplomacy. more
It’s little wonder that corporate executives and governments the world over have begun to take a closer look at the opportunities on offer in Indonesia. But even Indonesia’s most fervent boosters are often disappointed by the country they so desperately want to succeed. Because despite all the opportunities Indonesia promises, it’s going to have to overcome significant obstacles to realize its potential. more
As the Western drawdown in Afghanistan nears, regional powers are growing increasingly worried. The mild panic over a resurgence of the Taliban has produced a variety of dialogue mechanisms among Afghanistan’s neighbors. These initial overtures toward regional security cooperation are a promising start. But avoiding a repeat of the 1990s will require a more open and inclusive diplomatic and political forum. more