Chinese strategists likely see the prospect of a U.S. intervention in Syria as very beneficial to China. This might seem counterintuitive, given that Beijing has blocked efforts in the U.N. to authorize action in Syria. But while China is not interested in legitimizing U.S. involvement, Beijing would quickly seize the opportunity to take advantage should the U.S. decide to entangle itself in Syria. more
In an email interview, Michael M. Gunter, a professor of political science at Tennessee Technological University who focuses on Kurdish issues, discussed the state of internal Kurdish politics. more
Like virtually everyone else, Moscow was surprised by the groundswell of change that began in the Arab world in early 2011. The present “Arab Awakening,” Russian experts opine, may take decades and is likely to transform the region. The Russian leadership has two main worries: U.S. involvement in nominally sovereign countries, and the potential of spillover from the Arab Spring onto the Russian neighborhood. more
The United States and Russia have announced a diplomatic initiative that would bring together representatives from the Syrian regime and opposition forces to negotiate a framework to end the Syrian conflict. more
John Kerry undertook his maiden voyage to Moscow as U.S. secretary of state this week, and the initial prognosis is that his visit was a success. There was a perceptible thaw in what, over the past year, has been described as a much more contentious relationship. Kerry continued the process of leaving behind bilateral baggage that had accumulated during the the first term of the Obama administration. more
When Israeli missiles struck Syrian facilities on May 3—an operation that Israel has not officially confirmed but is widely believed to have carried out—they showed the results of a cost-benefit analysis whose arithmetic yields clear results. Since the attack, Israel has worked to assure Damascus that it has no interest in becoming embroiled in the Syrian civil war; the attack, rather, targeted Hezbollah. more
India’s foreign minister visited Tehran in the first week of May, where he signed a number of agreements, including for the expansion of the strategically important Chabahar Port. The thawing of bilateral ties reflects the critical interest that the two sides share in ensuring stability in Afghanistan. Clearly the scheduled U.S. military withdrawal is driving the new diplomatic engagement between India and Iran. more
In an email interview, Mark N. Katz, a professor of government and politics at George Mason University who focuses on Russian foreign policy, explained the recent evolution of the defense relationship between Russia and Israel. more
As the immediate sense of crisis fades on the Korean Peninsula, the longer-term cycle of provocation and response remains in place. North Korea's nuclear weapons and missile capabilities continue to grow, and South Korea is feeling the pressure to respond by building its own capabilities. Meanwhile, there are signs that China's resolve to back the North may be wavering. And while the U.S. response to North Korea seems to have worked in the short run, Washington needs to stay prepared for all contingencies. more
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s tentatively planned visit to the Gaza Strip later this month is proving yet another test for Ankara’s Middle East policy, which has been battered by the regional upheaval of the past two years. While Erdogan has long wanted to make an official trip to Hamas-ruled Gaza, he has also been receiving strong messages from the U.S.and Fatah to put the visit off. more
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is heading to Moscow this week as part of a renewed campaign to make Russia rethink its support for the Syrian regime. Kerry is reportedly optimistic that he can make some progress. But this new push is reminiscent of earlier, unsuccessful efforts. And the mere fact that the U.S. continues to court Moscow over Syria represents a considerable diplomatic victory for the Russians. more
There has been a lot of talk in recent days about “red lines” and the strength of American resolve. Much of it has revolved around the possibility that chemical weapons may have been used in the Syrian civil war as well as allegations that China has not fulfilled commitments it made to resolve the Chen Guangchen affair. But red lines are most effective when there is already a pre-existing commitment to act. more
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah acknowledged earlier this week in the clearest terms to date that members of his Shiite organization, the most powerful military and political force in Lebanon, are helping President Bashar al-Assad fight the opposition in Syria. more
In an email interview, Matthew Levitt, director of the Stein program on counterterrorism and intelligence at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, explained the broad range of Hezbollah’s illicit activities and the growing savvy of its criminal network. more
Over the weekend, Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika was airlifted out of the country for treatment after suffering a mini-stroke. But while Bouteflika’s doctors said the damage to his health was reversible, their reassurance has not put an end to speculation about a potentially abrupt end to his presidency. more
Since 1961, civil-military relations in Turkey were characterized by a powerful military with an autonomous influence over politics alongside a weak civilian government. In the past decade, however, Turkish civil-military relations have normalized toward a balance more in line with liberal democratic expectations. The government is exercising civilian oversight; the military seems to have accepted its new subordination; and society seems supportive. Many questions nevertheless remain. more
Last week saw an escalation in violence between mostly Sunni Arab protesters and Iraqi government forces under Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s control. Dozens were killed in the most intense clashes with security forces since 2006-2007. The violence comes as Maliki faces political challenges from the Sunni and Kurdish opposition, and is playing out against a regional backdrop with serious implications for Iraq. more
Doubts remain over whether the Syrian military used chemical weapons against rebels, as alleged last week. Even if the evidence proves to be totally accurate, many in Washington will continue to campaign against any military intervention. Yet this episode has introduced a new element of uncertainty over the U.S. response to the Syria crisis, which could in turn create a fleeting opportunity for diplomacy. more
In his recommendations for the U.S. to become more actively involved in the Syrian civil war, Sen. Bob Corker has fallen victim to one of the more seductive temptations that regularly befall American policymakers: that with enough aggressive leadership and a healthy application of technological acumen, Washington can get other actors to align themselves with and then execute U.S. policy objectives. more
In responding to the growing security crisis emanating from Syria, Jordan finds itself caught between the United States and the Gulf Cooperation Council, with the U.S. insisting on restraint in Syria and the GCC pushing hard to tip the military balance against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Jordan’s King Abdullah must negotiate these competing forces to manage what he sees as an imminent threat in Syria. more
The U.N. may soon be launching a new wave of peace operations, beginning with a mission in Mali in July. Yet the U.N. still has a huge amount of unfinished business to complete in countries where peacekeepers are already deployed. As U.N. officials look for the resources for these new missions, they will face pressure to downsize existing ones, even if that means leaving some fragile states’ problems unresolved. more
