Robert Farley

The intellectual battle over the future of American hegemony has been joined, with some arguing that the American Century has ended, and others claiming that U.S. military and economic advantage are likely to persist. The debate is complicated by a number of factors, however. Shifts in hegemony rarely come with a herald, and U.S. choices can still either extend American hegemony, or hasten its decline.
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Last week, the Patterson School conducted its annual crisis simulation, confronting students with a scenario that saw Mexican cartel gunmen attacking the Bellagio Casino in Las Vegas, where the cast of “Ocean’s Eleven” had gathered for a reunion. While such pyrotechnics may seem out of place outside a Hollywood studio lot, the use of simulations to train aspiring policymakers is expanding. more

The case for attacking Iran relies on the concept of uncertainty. We don’t know if the Iranians want to build a bomb, or if they can build a bomb, or what the consequences will be if they do build a bomb. It’s understandable how so much uncertainty can trigger anxiety. What is less clear is how we arrived at the notion that airstrikes against the Iranian nuclear program can eliminate this uncertainty. more

Over the past two weeks, the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps conducted an exercise off the Atlantic seaboard designed to refine expertise in amphibious operations and test new amphibious capabilities. The exercise demonstrated the continued importance of amphibious capabilities within the U.S. policy “toolbox,” while also providing an opportunity to refine and extend those capabilities. more

The four-decade-and-counting saga of the A-10 Thunderbolt II aircraft continued last week, when the Air Force announced it would cut five A-10 squadrons to reduce costs. Defense wonks met the announcement with a storm of criticism, but little surprise. The fight over the A-10 represents not so much a disagreement over technology, but rather a bureaucratically driven dispute over the nature of warfare. more

Most of the time, when confronted with the shortcomings of the national security system in place since 1947, we choose to muddle through with minor revisions. On rare occasions, when the institutions that make up the national security bureaucracy are fundamentally out of sync with the nation's strategic environment, we have the opportunity to redesign them. There is reason to believe the U.S. now faces such a moment. more

Pundits and commentators have begun to fall over themselves declaring the necessity of launching military campaigns against Syria and Iran. The catalyst for this enthusiasm is the success of NATO’s aerial campaign in Libya. Unfortunately, the rediscovered enthusiasm for intervention demonstrates only that the foreign policy punditocracy is committed to serially mislearning the lessons of airpower in war. more

Two weeks ago, President Barack Obama released a new strategic document intended to provide guidance for cuts in the growth rate of the defense budget. Though the planned cuts had already been announced in principle, the strategic priorities laid out in the document make it official: There’s going to be a knife fight at the Pentagon. Unfortunately, the American public won’t be watching. more

With Iran making loud noises about restricting freedom of the seas in the Persian Gulf and the Straits of Hormuz, the rescue of an Iranian vessel by the U.S. Navy this week represented a vindication of the Navy’s operant guiding doctrine, which conceptualizes seapower as positive sum, rather than zero sum. The rescue shows us that national and international ends are not necessarily in conflict. more

Since the end of the Cold War, the Russian arms industry has sustained itself by arming China and India. However, this situation is almost certainly unsustainable in the long run, as both countries appear to be outgrowing their dependence on the Russian military-industrial complex. This will spell trouble for Russia, which has had great difficulty developing exports based on anything other than arms or energy. more

Kim Jong Il is dead, and the world is wondering what to do about it. Some are arguing that the U.S. should now push hard against the DPRK, hopefully causing it to topple. But the DPRK is likely not only to survive such pressure, but to respond by lashing out. A much better approach would be to reach out to North Korean factions potentially interested in reintegrating the DPRK into the international community. more

The National Transitional Council of Libya has much on its plate, including most notably rebuilding the country in the wake of civil war while also preparing it for constitutional democracy. However, military challenges still beckon. In addition to residual fighting and managing the demands of competing militias, the council must centralize authority over violence and build a professional Libyan military. more

Today Brazil is far more prepared to engage in ambitious naval planning than in the past. Its GDP exceeds that of Russia, India and a number of other states that have advanced fleets, and its indigenous shipbuilding industry is gaining the experience necessary for homegrown construction of modern, advanced warships. Nevertheless, the Brazilian navy lags behind those of other comparable states.
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With his vigorous critique of the U.S. Army's emphasis on COIN doctrine in Iraq and Afghanistan, U.S. Army Col. Gian Gentile seemed to represent, to many outside observers, an effective internal critique of a doctrine that appeared to justify an endless U.S. engagement in Afghanistan. However, Gentile was -- and is -- fighting a different fight, one that will continue well after the end of the war in Afghanistan. more

President Barack Obama’s trip to Australia highlighted a decision to shift U.S. attention and resources away from the Middle East and toward East Asia. Obama’s remarks to the Australian Parliament, combined with his announcement of a new basing agreement on Australia’s northern coast, framed several days of discussions on the role that the United States would play in Asian power politics. more

How much danger would Iranian nuclear weapons pose to the world? Nuclear weapons are by their nature alarming, and the Iranian regime says and does a lot of alarming things. But how useful are nuclear weapons, even to a state with bad intentions? How much do they change tactical and strategic behavior? For devices capable of destroying cities and killing millions, the answer is surprisingly murky. more

Under what circumstances could the United States and China go to war? A recently released RAND report examined this question and concluded that war between the two countries was improbable. Nevertheless, U.S. and Chinese military strategists will continue long-term planning for war scenarios. That makes it worth asking ourselves, “What mistakes are we making now that could lead to war later?” more

Although the total number of submarines in service worldwide has declined since the end of the Cold War, the number of countries operating relatively advanced submarines has increased, even as anti-submarine capabilities have atrophied. The balance of undersea capabilities bears attention, but a closer look suggests that a roughly stable asymmetry has been achieved, both in quantitative and qualitative terms. more

Some defense analysts have suggested that the outcome of the Western military intervention in Libya indicates that airpower has fulfilled its promise, having matured to the extent that it can win wars with only a minimal ground component. The effect of such a conclusion on austerity-afflicted military budgets in Europe and the United States could be huge and costly, as it is almost certainly premature. more

A new report has shed light on one of most important developments in the international arms trade market of the past 10 years: the decline in Russian arms sales to China. While diplomatic relations between the two powers remain relatively strong, their trade in arms has collapsed since the middle of the last decade. The deterioration of the two countries' arms relationship is anything but a local concern.