Germany has announced it will provide up to 800 troops to the NATO training contingent that will replace the ISAF mission in Afghanistan after 2014, a notable move in Europe’s current climate of budgetary austerity. With few bilateral interests at play, Berlin’s decision, and similar indications from Italy, raises the question of what the continental European powers’ long-term strategic goals are in Afghanistan. more
President Barack Obama’s trip to Mexico to meet with Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto was an effort to recast the perceived priorities of the bilateral agenda from security to economic issues. The two leaders announced a cabinet-level economic dialogue, education exchanges and a few other related activities. These initiatives are certainly worthy, but the leaders missed an opportunity to think bigger. more
When U.S. President Barack Obama and Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto met in Mexico City yesterday, among the wide range of issues they discussed was the status of the Transboundary Hydrocarbons Agreement. Despite the economic and energy security benefits it promises to both sides, the agreement has been stalled in the U.S. for more than a year. Further delay on the agreement makes little sense. more
Last week saw an escalation in violence between mostly Sunni Arab protesters and Iraqi government forces under Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s control. Dozens were killed in the most intense clashes with security forces since 2006-2007. The violence comes as Maliki faces political challenges from the Sunni and Kurdish opposition, and is playing out against a regional backdrop with serious implications for Iraq. more
In an email interview, Thijs Van de Graaf, a postdoctoral fellow at the Ghent Institute for International Studies specializing in global energy politics and international institutions, explained the IEA’s expansion drive and its likely effects. more
In February, Japan reportedly offered civil nuclear cooperation to Saudi Arabia to help the kingdom boost oil exports by freeing up supplies used in domestic electricity generation. Given its plans for a massive nuclear buildout, Saudi Arabia seems a logical destination for the Japanese nuclear sector. But Motegi's offer also reflects a desire not to concede strategic space to the Chinese in the Persian Gulf. more
It’s election season again in Venezuela. And while the future of the country’s international oil agreements will be far from most voters’ minds on April 14, this is not so for the 17 Caribbean and Central American nations that make up Petrocaribe, an arrangement by which they import Venezuelan oil on extremely favorable terms. These nations’ energy security may well rest on the outcome of the presidential race. more
Turkey and Israel are moving toward reconciliation at the same time that the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) has declared a cease-fire in its armed struggle with the Turkish state. Combined, the two developments have paved the way for Ankara to achieve its longstanding goal of becoming a regional energy transit hub, but ongoing disputes with Cyprus and Iraq mean that further progress remains uncertain. more
Now nearing the midpoint of his first full term in office, Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan will count on the advantages of incumbency and party dominance in seeking another term when Nigeria votes again in 2015. Yet insecurity, corruption and stalled policy implementation have provoked broad criticism, and the remainder of his term is likely to be characterized by high levels of political tension. more
In an email interview, Steve Thomas, director of research at University of Greenwich Business School and an expert on the economics and policy of nuclear power, explained the significant obstacles to Jordan’s development of nuclear energy. more
Sudan has been pursuing some eye-catching regional diplomacy in recent weeks, with simultaneous high-level visits to Iran and Saudi Arabia. Sudan’s relations with Iran have long been prominent in regional politics. Its more concerted outreach to Saudi Arabia has become more visible in 2013, driven in part by the desire for rapprochement with Riyadh, as well as by Sudan’s chronic need for external investment. more
Since taking office, Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto has mounted an assault against the country’s entrenched monopolies. Peña Nieto first took on the teachers union, then the telecom industry, explaining his aim was to “transform the country.” Still, despite the reform momentum, restructuring state-owned oil giant Pemex will prove far more difficult due to political and constitutional hurdles. more
Given domestic economic weaknesses, security competition with India and an antagonistic relationship with Afghanistan, Pakistan has traditionally sought external alliances with strong powers and pursued an offensive security policy. Nevertheless, there has been a dawning realization in Islamabad that a new approach is necessary, and as a result, Pakistan’s foreign and defense policies are undergoing important transformations. more
The past two decades have brought dramatic swings in the pace and extent of Latin American natural gas and electricity integration. Enthusiasm among the region’s investors and governments has waxed and waned as the economic and political drivers of cross-border investment and cooperation have evolved. A new phase of regional energy integration is gathering pace, but it will be very distinct from what was seen two decades ago. more
As South America’s middle class continues to grow, two important political priorities will increasingly clash: the need to meet growing energy demand, and an increasing sensitivity to the environment. Energy security has often been the driver of regional policies, but environmental issues are becoming increasingly relevant. Until these interests can be reconciled, the investment required to meet burgeoning energy demand is less likely to materialize. more
In the early 1980s, governments controlled the energy sector in all the major Latin American countries. Over the next two decades, a combination of factors drove energy policy reforms in every country, followed by a more-recent political backlash against the market. Today, Latin American states are arrayed along a continuum of energy policies between market-based incentives and state control, with performance depending upon resource endowments and government policy. more
In an email interview, Scott Moore, a doctoral research fellow at Harvard Kennedy School of Government researching sustainable energy development in China, explained the context and possible consequences of China's plan to invest billions in water infrastructure. more
The so-called shale revolution might finally achieve what every U.S. president since Richard Nixon has placed on the top list of strategic priorities: energy independence. If this occurs, what happens to the current consensus about the desirability of American global leadership? Energy independence raises the question of whether "national interest" will continue to be a guide for American action in the world. more
With only days to go before Armenia’s presidential election, all signs point to the re-election of President Serzh Sargsyan. Continuity in Armenia’s foreign policy is likely under a second Sargsyan term as Armenia continues to balance opening to the West with its longstanding loyalty to Russia. However, the one potential for significant geopolitical change after the voting is in Armenia-Turkey relations. more
Despite heightened political tensions among Japan, China and South Korea over territorial disputes in the East China Sea, Asian economic cooperation remains critical to the global economy as it struggles to return to widespread growth. Energy cooperation among these three Asian powers offers an opportunity for much-needed engagement, and nowhere is this more urgent than in the area of nuclear energy. more
Over the past few months, Japan’s relations with China and South Korea have deteriorated rapidly over territorial disputes. This is particularly true for relations between Japan and China. Territorial sovereignty is inevitably a politically sensitive issue. Yet there remain important areas, especially in energy, where cooperation among Japan, China and South Korea is not only possible but necessary. more
