Two factors, among others, help explain the government’s decision to charge Boston Marathon bomber Dzhokhar Tsarnaev with the use of a WMD: The charge is seen by prosecutors as relatively easy to prove, and it can be punished by the death penalty. This highlights the irrelevance of a dispute in the U.S. Senate that is holding up important new anti-nuclear and anti-radiological terrorism legislation. more
The recent review conference of the Chemical Weapons Convention addressed many important issues, but overshadowing them all are revolutionary changes in chemistry, biology and nano and information technologies. Some of the implications of these scientific and technological developments are potentially positive. Unfortunately, some of the likely results could have extremely negative repercussions for the CWC. more
When North Korea detonated a nuclear device in February, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry drew a link between Pyongyang and Tehran, suggesting Iran would draw conclusions about its own nuclear program from how events unfolded. But it is likely that the impact of the North Korean situation on the conflict with Iran is more direct than “learning lessons” -- the two appear to be cooperating directly. more
While American policymakers often say that "all options are on the table" when it comes to dealing with Iran and its nuclear program, the president publicly took one option off the table during his recent visit to Israel: containment. If the U.S. has indeed definitively rejected containment as an option, Washington might be unable to take advantage of a potential window of opportunity for a deal with Iran. more
Newly inaugurated South Korean President Park Geun-hye will need to address the demands from a faction of her own party for either the United States to return tactical nuclear weapons to the South or for Seoul to develop its own nuclear arsenal. In light of the Feb. 12 North Korean nuclear test, this faction believes that Seoul needs a nuclear capability to deter potential North Korean military threats. But that simply isn't true. more
Park Geun-hye’s term as South Korean president begins at a time of serious tension on the Korean Peninsula, following North Korea’s nuclear test earlier this month. Despite Park’s campaign promises to mend ties with Pyongyang, which have deteriorated, North Korea’s third nuclear test, a general climate of discord and the composition of Park’s government will make an improvement in relations unlikely. more
The more nuclear powers there are, the higher the possibility nuclear weapons will be used -- whether out of desperation by a crumbling or unstable regime or pure wickedness by terrorists or criminals. If this happens, the U.S. military could possibly be ordered into the post-nuclear environment. But the U.S. armed forces are currently unprepared to operate in an environment contaminated by a nuclear explosion. more
While China expressed its opposition to North Korea's nuclear test, Beijing also stated its desire to see an early resumption of the Six-Party Talks seeking a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula. Despite their irritation with the North Korean regime, most Chinese officials appear more concerned about the potential collapse of the North Korean state than about its pursuit of nuclear and missile programs. more
It is no accident that European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton proposed, and Iran has accepted, holding the next round of nuclear talks in Kazakhstan on Feb. 25. Kazakhstani Foreign Minister Erlan Idrissov reaffirmed his country’s readiness to host the next round of talks during a late-January visit to Moscow, highlighting a bilateral relationship that is driven by pragmatism on both sides. more
More than four years after President Barack Obama declared the goal of eliminating nuclear weapons, the nuclear predicament has become more complex and shows little sign of movement toward abolition. Yet the administration remains mired in a Cold War paradigm based on more U.S.-Russia arms control. Instead, the Obama administration should focus on other areas in order to advance nonproliferation objectives. more
In a recent dialogue session at the Chinese Embassy in Washington among Chinese diplomats and American experts on China-U.S. relations, several themes emerged. The most interesting among them was the odd juxtaposition between Chinese policymakers' concern about the Asia pivot with the feeling that Washington will not be able to follow through on the planned strategic rebalancing toward the Asia-Pacific region. more
Amid concerns that North Korea might conduct a long-range ballistic missile test as early as this week, reports have surfaced indicating that Iran has permanently stationed staff in North Korea as part of a recent cooperation agreement with Pyongyang. The move highlights the two countries' history of military cooperation, particularly when it comes to exchanges of hardware and designs for ballistic missiles. more
Although neither Russia and China is the focus of U.S. ballistic missile defense efforts, both Moscow and Beijing have repeatedly expressed their concerns that U.S. missile defenses will negatively impact their own strategic capabilities and interests. While China shares some of Russia’s concerns and responses regarding U.S. missile defenses, Beijing’s objections also differ in certain respects. more
By doubling the number of centrifuges in operation at its Fordow plant, Iran has created a two-fold nuclear breakout problem: First, having learned how to enrich uranium to 20 percent, Iran’s nuclear workers can more easily manufacture weapons-grade uranium. Second, Iran’s growing stock of higher-enriched uranium can be more easily converted to weapons-grade fuel than its low-enriched stockpiles. more
In an email interview, Brian Finlay, a senior associate and director of the Managing Across Boundaries program at the Stimson Center, discussed Russia’s decision to withdraw from the program. more
At last week’s Moscow Nonproliferation Conference, some 200 people, including a number of Russian and Western experts, gathered to discuss a wide range of nonproliferation issues. Given the statements of the Russian speakers at the conference, Moscow is laying down some tough conditions for making further progress in nuclear arms control. more
As is often the case in the prelude to war, the discussion about a U.S. attack on Iran has so far been informed more by passion than by analysis, stoked by popular distrust of the Iranian regime. The burden of proof lies with those who contend that an attack is necessary and that the strategic benefits for the U.S. outweigh the costs. So far advocates of military action have not made their case.
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As Syria's crisis descends into an increasingly bloody civil war, emerging fault lines have been reinforced both within the country and across the region. Once a close partner to the Syrian government, neighboring Turkey has now become a wary adversary. Meanwhile, bitter divisions at the U.N. Security Council have all but paralyzed the international community. And even if an intervention were to be approved, it would face serious obstacles. This World Politics Review special report examines Syria's downward spiral. more
Leaving aside the issue of whether the Syrian WMD program has been underestimated or exaggerated and assuming that the Syrian regime does have the ability to produce and deliver some nasty weapons throughout the region -- including targets in Israel and Turkey -- then how the Syrian crisis is handled in the coming weeks could, in turn, have major repercussions for the international system as a whole. more
The Chemical Weapons Convention has in some ways been the most successful nonproliferation agreement in history. Yet, problems remain regarding the convention’s goals of achieving universal membership and eliminating all chemical weapons stocks. Recent fears surrounding the possible use of chemical weapons in Libya and Syria, or their seizure by terrorists, underscore the need to update the CWC.
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After key security aides of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad were killed in a bombing attack last week, media coverage became saturated with pronouncements of Assad’s “imminent” fall and reports of contingency planning for the collapse of his regime. more