Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto, like his predecessors, is eager to lessen his nation’s security, economic and trade dependence on the United States. Mexico has set its sights on expanding its global reach, both in the Asia-Pacific region and Latin America. Nevertheless, proximity, NAFTA and a web of investment, military cooperation, economic assistance and migration will continue to anchor Mexico's relations with its northern neighbor. more
A group of jihadi militants with links to al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb has infiltrated western Tunisia, with security implications for both Tunisia and Algeria. To combat them, Tunisia’s military needs better equipment, which the government has promised to deliver. But it is not clear whether Tunis will pursue the deeper military and economic reforms needed to quell the terrorist threat in the long term. more
At their White House summit last week, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and U.S. President Barack Obama jointly called for greater international efforts to end the Syrian civil war, though the two leaders reportedly differ on how directly the West should become involved. Meanwhile, the preoccupation with Syria has obscured unresolved sources of tension between the two countries on other issues. more
In late-April, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon tapped Nicholas Kay, a former British ambassador and Africa director at the U.K. Foreign and Commonwealth Office, as his new special representative in Somalia. When Kay takes up his duties as the head of the new U.N. Assistance Mission in Somalia on June 3, he will be presented with risks and opportunities at a time of renewed hope and momentum for Somalia. more
Germany has announced it will provide up to 800 troops to the NATO training contingent that will replace the ISAF mission in Afghanistan after 2014, a notable move in Europe’s current climate of budgetary austerity. With few bilateral interests at play, Berlin’s decision, and similar indications from Italy, raises the question of what the continental European powers’ long-term strategic goals are in Afghanistan. more
The Philippine Coast Guard opened fire on a Taiwanese fishing vessel two weeks ago, killing a Taiwanese fisherman and provoking a diplomatic deadlock between the Philippines and Taiwan in a period of growing tensions over disputed waters in the region. more
Chinese strategists likely see the prospect of a U.S. intervention in Syria as very beneficial to China. This might seem counterintuitive, given that Beijing has blocked efforts in the U.N. to authorize action in Syria. But while China is not interested in legitimizing U.S. involvement, Beijing would quickly seize the opportunity to take advantage should the U.S. decide to entangle itself in Syria. more
Two factors, among others, help explain the government’s decision to charge Boston Marathon bomber Dzhokhar Tsarnaev with the use of a WMD: The charge is seen by prosecutors as relatively easy to prove, and it can be punished by the death penalty. This highlights the irrelevance of a dispute in the U.S. Senate that is holding up important new anti-nuclear and anti-radiological terrorism legislation. more
In an email interview, Arthur Boutellis, a research fellow and adviser to the Peace Operations and Africa programs at the International Peace Institute, described the state of Cote d’Ivoire’s security sector reform and the obstacles to further progress. more
As the British armed forces rebuild after more than a decade of sustained military operations, the U.S.-U.K. strategic relationship has come under intense scrutiny. While London remains committed to working alongside the U.S., there is deep concern that Washington has become a less than reliable partner. Were it not for the political and economic turmoil in the eurozone, U.S.-U.K. relations might be in crisis. more
China's recent incursion into Indian territory along their disputed border in eastern Kashmir brings to the fore the unpredictability of Chinese foreign policy implementation and Beijing's frequent recourse to low-level aggression. Despite a general trend toward deepening cooperation between China and India, the incident lowers hopes that China's new leadership will clear up uncertainty in bilateral relations. more
The controversy over whether the Obama administration lied about the September 2012 attack on the U.S. diplomatic compound in Benghazi, Libya, will consume Washington for some time, ultimately influencing the way the U.S. military responds to crises. But while the emotion associated with the inability to stop the attack is understandable, it may push the military to take excessive risks in future crises. more
Like virtually everyone else, Moscow was surprised by the groundswell of change that began in the Arab world in early 2011. The present “Arab Awakening,” Russian experts opine, may take decades and is likely to transform the region. The Russian leadership has two main worries: U.S. involvement in nominally sovereign countries, and the potential of spillover from the Arab Spring onto the Russian neighborhood. more
Does the U.S. genuinely want Europe to police its geopolitical backyard? When it comes to the Syrian crisis, the answer seems to be no. The peace conference announced last week was a setback for Britain and France’s more hawkish approach and reflects a paradox: While the U.S. has frequently called for Europe to take responsibility for its own security, Washington is often nervous about the results. more
The Obama administration’s pivot away from the Middle East and toward Asia is based on the belief that the U.S. has underinvested in the Asia-Pacific, where the bulk of its future opportunities and challenges lie. As America rebalances, a defense white paper from its most reliable ally in the region, Australia, should be closely read in Washington. Its message is that if the U.S. is rebalancing, so is Australia. more
In an email interview, Rachel Utley, an expert on French defense and security policies at the University of Leeds, explained the context and implications of the defense white paper France issued late last month. more
South Korean President Park Geun-hye is currently in the United States, where she will meet with President Barack Obama at the White House, attend a special dinner to commemorate the 60th anniversary of the U.S.-South Korean alliance and address a joint session of Congress, among other activities. She will also travel to New York and Los Angeles, but not to other countries, underscoring the trip’s significance. more
As the immediate sense of crisis fades on the Korean Peninsula, the longer-term cycle of provocation and response remains in place. North Korea's nuclear weapons and missile capabilities continue to grow, and South Korea is feeling the pressure to respond by building its own capabilities. Meanwhile, there are signs that China's resolve to back the North may be wavering. And while the U.S. response to North Korea seems to have worked in the short run, Washington needs to stay prepared for all contingencies. more
In an email interview, Mark N. Katz, a professor of government and politics at George Mason University who focuses on Russian foreign policy, explained the recent evolution of the defense relationship between Russia and Israel. more
In an email interview, Corey Wallace, a teaching fellow at the University of Auckland who studies international security and Japan’s regional relations, explained the development of the Japan-Vietnam defense relationship and what it means for each country’s tensions with China. more
With French forces drawing down in Mali, the MNLA, a separatist Tuareg rebel group, remains in control of the northeastern part of the country, with French support. Meanwhile, there are still no political solutions on the table to address the underlying causes of the conflict that broke out in 2012. As a result, the relationship among Bamako, Paris and the Tuareg remains precarious and characterized by mistrust. more
