Daily Review: Economic Crisis Leaves Cuba at an Impasse

Daily Review: Economic Crisis Leaves Cuba at an Impasse
Photo: Street in Havana, Cuba, Apr. 26, 2007 (photo by Flickr user darkroomillusions licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license).

Today’s Top Story

Residents in Cuba’s second-largest city, Santiago, say the government has moved to address local grievances after several hundred people in the city protested against food shortages and lengthy power outages on March 17. Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel visited Santiago last week, and the government has begun to distribute subsidized rations while also supplying power more regularly to the city, Reuters reports.

Our Take

The protest in Santiago and the government’s attempts to smooth over the grievances of its residents highlight the double bind Cuba’s leadership finds itself in—and underscore just how much Cuba’s fortunes have changed in less than a decade.

Back in 2015, it seemed like Cuba was entering a new era. Then-President Raul Castro wanted to bring the country’s economy into the 21st century, with more private entrepreneurship and greater openness to global markets. The normalization of ties with the U.S. under the Obama administration, accompanied by expanded trade and relaxed travel restrictions for U.S. citizens, was a promising—and lucrative—first step in that process.

A lot has gone wrong for Cuba since then. The Trump administration reversed virtually all of the Obama-era changes to U.S. policy on Cuba—short of formally ending normalization—and reimposed sanctions on Cuba’s economy. The U.S. also imposed crippling sanctions on Venezuela, Cuba’s economic patron. Then, the COVID-19 pandemic brought tourism to Cuba to a halt. By 2021, these developments had left Cuba’s economy in its worst state since the end of the Cold War. Since then, the crisis has only gotten worse.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration has surprisingly eased only the most draconian U.S. restrictions on Havana, out of fear of angering hard-line voices among Cuban Americans in Florida.

The result has been popular desperation that led to unprecedented nationwide protests in July 2021 and a renewed exodus of Cubans from the island, underscoring the urgent need for bolder economic reforms. But the unrest has also rattled the regime’s old-guard hardliners, who already questioned the reforms the government had tepidly begun in the 2010s. They are now blocking further measures in an effort to preserve the state’s role in the economy and the Communist Party’s place atop Cuban society.

That leaves the regime in a bind and Cuba at an impasse. Economic reforms are needed to respond to Cubans’ aspirations, and progress on human rights is necessary for Washington to further reevaluate its Cuba policy, with all the economic dividends that would bring. But both of those paths would also weaken Cuba’s party-state, leading the government to instead double down on economic mismanagement and repression.

For more: Read WPR’s free Insight on Cuba.

On Our Radar

Chinese President Xi Jinping called for closer trade ties with the U.S. during a meeting with top U.S. business leaders today, another positive sign for U.S.-China relations after a period of tensions in recent years.

Because of the high stakes involved in U.S.-China relations, both sides have repeatedly stated their desire to prevent the relationship from veering into a severe crisis or conflict. Unfortunately, as Michael Swaine wrote recently, neither side has met the requirements necessary to stabilize relations—namely, offering and following through on credible assurances.

U.S. President Joe Biden greets Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Only Credible Assurances Can Stabilize U.S.-China Relations

March 13, 2024 | U.S. officials have reportedly made several assurances to China that they haven’t made public. To Beijing, they’re starting to ring hollow. Read more.


Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and French President Emmanuel Macron announced a plan to invest $1.1 billion in protecting the Amazon rainforest. The announcement was made during Macron’s ongoing visit to Brazil.

Lula has made environmentalism, and specifically protecting the Amazon, a pillar of his presidency in Brazil. As James Bosworth wrote last year, it’s also an issue that Lula can use to advance his foreign policy ambitions, which include positioning Brazil as a leader of the Global South.

Colombian President Gustavo Petro, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Bolivian President Luis Arce and Peruvian President Dina Boluarte.

Protecting the Amazon Is Good Policy, but Difficult Politics

Aug. 14, 2023 | With countries like Venezuela blocking radical action on the Amazon, Brazil should help find consensus on combatting deforestation. Read more.


An Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon killed seven members of a Sunni Muslim group earlier today. The attack triggered a counterstrike by Hezbollah that killed one person in northern Israel.

The strikes reawakened fears that the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, which has been active but limited since the war in Gaza began, could escalate into a wider war. As Sam Heller wrote earlier this month, de-escalation between the two sides is unlikely without a cease-fire in Gaza.


Yesterday, Chile opened up more than two dozen lithium salt flats to private investment, reserving two deposits for state majority control. The move advances, and somewhat moderates, Chilean President Gabriel Boric’s plans to bring the country’s lithium industry under greater state control, as James Bosworth wrote about last year.


Venezuela’s main opposition coalition said yesterday that the government of President Nicolas Maduro has allowed it to register a provisional candidate for the country’s July presidential election. Read yesterday’s Daily Review for more context.

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