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November 21, 2009
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After the Color Has Faded from the Revolution

Posted By Judah Grunstein 19 Nov 2009 Five years after the Orange Revolution, neither conditions on the ground nor the popular view of those in power has changed in Western Ukraine. Outrage, it seems, has been replaced by apathy, and now the country risks tilting back eastward.

This, too, seems like a predictable but nonetheless saddening outcome:

"One thing I can say with certainty: There will be no repetition of that revolution," Mr. Antypovych said. "People will no longer go out into the streets for a politician. They simply will not go out. Based on our surveys, most voters expect there to be mass falsification. They are already accustomed to the idea."

The first two constituencies I thought of upon reading that were the Iranian opposition, and President Barack Obama's young, first-time-voting supporters. Hope is certainly a mobilizing force, especially in the face of power that has lost its legitimacy. But inherent in the old adage that politics is the art of the possible is the sad truth that what is possible is bound to disappoint those whose hopes are set too high. Nothing defeats revolutions quite like success.

More Israel, Syria, France and Turkey

Posted By Judah Grunstein 18 Nov 2009 Two alternate takes on the Israel-Syria mediator sweepstakes, by Jeb Koogler here, and Yigal Schleifer here. I think Koogler overstates the degree to which a French role would undermine an American involvement, or represents an attempt to rival America. That's usually the rap France gets. But in this case, like many others, everyone knows that no deal is possible without American involvement. Still, the question of when America steps into the negotiations is significant. Getting France and Turkey to do some of the initial lifting can help avoid outcomes like the Obama administration's initial setbacks on the Israeli-Palestinian track. (I'm not sure either why Koogler says that France's involvement would mean returning the Golan Heights would automatically be left out of the negotiations.)

That said, an Israel-Syria deal is a tough nut to crack, and neither French or Turkish mediation represents a magic bullet.

Off the Radar News Roundup

Posted By Judah Grunstein 18 Nov 2009 - After meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao calls the G-2 appelation premature, saying everyone should remain "sober-minded" about it.

- After going online in August 2009, the Chinese Defense Ministry's Web site was cyberattacked 2.3 million times in the first month. Payback? (Much more of interest in a People's Daily interview with the site's editor.)

- China and Vietnam signed an agreement definitively demarcating their 800-mile land border, a process that took 10 years. They agreed to continue negotiations regarding their maritime boundary disputes. It's important to remember when considering China's rise that in addition to domestic separatist movements and the unresolved cross-Strait situation, China has a host of disputed land and maritime borders with serious strategic implications.

- China's vice premier was in Damascus to sign trade and aid deals. Access to markets is about the only leverage the U.S. has in Syria.

- Japan's DPJ seems to be steadily walking back from its confrontational stance on the Futenma base closure agreement.

- New Delhi issued a statement in response to the U.S.-China joint declaration's pledge to "support the improvement and growth of relations between India and Pakistan," saying it considered the matter a bilateral dispute that did not call for a third-party role. India is very, very sensitive about this sort of language. Including it in the Obama-Hu statement seems like yet another U.S. diplomatic protocol gaffe. Who's in charge of the language here?

- Pakistan is set to unveil the home-built JF-17 fighter jet, jointly developed with China. Islamabad has already decided to buy the next-gen fighters from China outright.

- Georgia considers re-opening its only legal border crossing with Russia to trade.

- Medvedev restates last year's targets for Russian military. Kind of like restating New Year's resolutions.

- A UAE delegation will visit Ukraine in two weeks to scout farm-leasing deals. Soon we will all be growing wheat for oil sheiks?

- Mozambican opposition claims massive fraud in recent landslide election victory for incumbent president.

- Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva expressed disappointment over U.S.-China climate change declaration.

Researched by Kari Lipschutz.

Iran's Cybercrime Plan Riles Rights Community

Posted By Juliette Terzieff 18 Nov 2009 Rights advocates are expressing concern about Iranian plans to create a cybercrimes division to investigate illegal activity on the Internet, over fears that authorities will use the unit to target the opposition and political activists.

Iranian authorities say they are aware of over 100,000 incidents of cybercrimes in 2008 -- including theft, fraud, forgery and libel -- and that the number is on the rise.

But rights advocates worry that the unit's real purpose is to quell political discourse and enhance an ongoing crackdown on the opposition, which relies heavily on Internet-based tools for communication. After Iran's controversial June presidential election, Twitter became a favored mode of communication among protesters, to communicate both amongst themselves and with their supporters worldwide.

Authorities have vowed to pursue those guilty of spreading "defamation and mischief" via online forums -- charges that have previously been used to silence critics.

"The authorities' aim seems to be to deter people from criticizing the government or circulating information -- such as information on human rights violations -- that they wish to suppress. Instead of permitting this, Iran's judicial and security forces should end the mounting attack on Iran's bloggers and online activists," Malcolm Smart, director of Amnesty International's Middle East and North Africa Program said in a press release.

The 12-member unit, officially called the "Control Center for Internet Activities," will reportedly be part of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and report directly to Iran's chief prosecutor.

Iran has long been considered one of the worst countries for media and Internet freedom. Reporters Without Borders ranks Iran as one of the world's biggest Internet "black holes" due to pervasive censorship, and the country placed in the bottom five of the group's most recent annual Press Freedom Index.

The use of technology to curtail individual rights has emerged in recent years as a hot-button issue for rights activists. Internet Communications & Technology companies have been repeatedly dragged into the fray over allegations of self-censorship of their products, provision of advanced tracking and identification technology to governments, and, in some cases, actively providing governments with evidence that leads to prosecution. Siemens and Nokia faced a consumer boycott earlier this year after reports that the companies sold Iran equipment to monitor Internet and e-mail communications.

The U.S. and Chinese Economies Are 'Superfused'

Posted By Kari Lipschutz 18 Nov 2009 "This is not a detachable relationship," Zachary Karabell said, referring to the U.S.-China relationship, at the EastWest Institute yesterday. The visit by the author of "Superfusion: How China and America Became One Economy and Why the World's Prosperity Depends On It" could not have been better timed, coinciding with President Barack Obama's trip to the world's third-largest economy and the largest owner of U.S. debt.

"There is an interdependence that has begun to erode the sovereignty of both nations," Karabell said, outlining the premise of his new book. According to Karabell, after the suppression of the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989, Deng Xiaoping accelerated China's economic modernization that he had launched a decade earlier. American companies began to sink billions of dollars into the New China, setting the stage for the inextricable relationship between the two powers today. He emphasized that it is not the economic crisis that has linked the two nations, but rather seeds planted long ago, below both governments' radars. China provided an alluring, largely untapped market, and U.S. companies submitted to what Karabell calls the "wooing of American capital."

Over the past 20 years, U.S. companies have invested almost $2 trillion in China, something to keep in mind when considering the recent U.S. bailout of the financial system. In a mind-numbingly complicated scenario, Karabell used the oscillating fortunes of Morgan Stanley as an illustration of his overarching point: Our antiquated 19th-century model for global economics no longer applies in today's real world.

Beginning in the U.S. economic boom of the '90s, Morgan Stanley has invested a combined $5 billion in China. As the American economy began its freefall last year, China lent the U.S. government $5 billion, which was in turn used to bail out the failed Morgan Stanley. In order to pay back the $5 billion to the U.S. Treasury as quickly as possible, Morgan Stanley then sold assets of the company, of which China purchased a large portion.

And so it goes with many other companies, with the U.S. government acting as an intermediary for a decades-long business transaction.

Karabell says that though history can be a useful tool for making predictions, there has never been anything like modern China to use as a comparison. He did however offer two loose adaptations that could vaguely illustrate what the future of the U.S.-China relationship may hold.

Scenario A: The European Union-like relationship. In this scenario, both China and the United States embrace the melding of their economies for a greater good. Karabell discusses how the EU model allows both parties to maintain sovereignty of identity, while offering the United States the protection represented by China's economic potential in the current uncharted waters.

The provocativeness of his analogy is intentional, and Karabell says he understands that an EU-type relationship would be near impossible for two powers that have shared none of the decision-making that took place during the formation of the European Union. The unfeasibility is further illustrated by Wen Jiabao's comments today that suggest the possibility of a "G-2" is premature.

Scenario B: The U.K.-U.S. post-World War II loan structure. (The United States would in this case be the U.K. and China would be the United States. Got that?) In this scenario, China would extend a massive loan to the United States, so that it doesn't default on international commitments. In return, the U.S. would relinquish its global empire and the prominent global standing of the dollar.

There are big questions for both the United States and China when it comes to the future success of this delicate relationship. Karabell asks, "Can we act with the urgency that China demands?"

Of China, he wonders if, 15 years from now, the world might have a new image of what freedom looks like. As China's youth grows up with more personal freedoms, will they yearn for democracy? As long as the poor continue to get richer, Karabell says, we could be dealing with an entirely new beast. The challenge for China will be making sure that's the case.

Off the Radar News Roundup

Posted By Judah Grunstein 17 Nov 2009 - China and Brazil reach a five-point consensus to strengthen military personnel exchanges, and technology cooperaiton. (Despite the emerging South-emerging East angle, France still makes a better fit for defense partnerships with Brazil.)

- Free press vs. free pass: A high-ranking Chinese Communist Party official goes on a state visit to Sudan, and the People's Daily doesn't mention the problematic nature of that bilateral relationship once.

- Taiwan and China finally signed that MoU on financial regulation. Financial observers exepect a major inflow of Chinese capital to Taiwan when it takes effect two months from now.

- In addition to the difficulties presented by renegotiating an already concluded agreement, the Hatoyama government is facing resistance from local officials to the alternatives it has suggested for where to relocate the Futenma base.

- A North Korean media outlet issued conciliatory statements regarding peace on the Korean peninsula in anticipation of U.S. President Barack Obama's visit to Seoul.

- If you thought Nabucco was the gas pipeline project least likely to see the light of day, you haven't met the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline yet.

- Azerbaijan signs agreements for alternative gas export routes, in signal to Turkey. No mention of it here, but Baku was not very happy with the Turkey-Armenia agreement, either.

- Tymoshenko's foreign policy platform would turn Ukraine squarely toward Europe.

- In Paris, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Iraqi President Jalal Talabani sign agreements that lay the groundwork for further French investment in Iraq.

Researched by Kari Lipschutz.

France, Turkey and Sarkozy's Strategic Vision

Posted By Judah Grunstein 17 Nov 2009 Yesterday, I half-jokingly noted the long trail of mediations necessary to get the Israeli-Syrian peace track back in gear. What I forgot to mention regarding a French role in that process is that before France can mediate between Israel and Turkey, someone's got to mediate between France and Turkey. That's because of French President Nicolas Sarkozy's vocal opposition to Turkey's EU accession.

There's been some recent chatter that France and Turkey have arrived at a modus vivendi on that issue. But I would be very surprised if Sarkozy doesn't reverse positions on Turkey completely should he win a second term in 2012 -- and perhaps even before then. Refusing Turkey's European claims made for good domestic electoral politics back in 2007, given Sarkozy's efforts to pick off far-right Front National voters, as well as French voters' general hostility to the EU. But it makes for a very counterproductive stance in light of Sarkozy ambitions for France's role in the Middle East.

Sarkozy's foreign policy has often been criticized as incoherent, which I think reflects the many ways in which the man has been confused with the program. As an illustration, today, Sarkozy is in Saudi Arabia, trying to advance French nuclear giant Areva's chances for developing the kingdom's future civil nuclear energy program. And this passage from the article, in particular, sums up what I think has been Sarkozy's great strength as a strategic planner:

Britain, once the colonial power in the region, still outweighs France at most levels. A former French envoy said: ''You turn up at meetings with British and Arabs and you immediately feel left behind by the strength of personal connections.''

But shifts in influence come slowly and Mr Sarkozy has cleverly positioned himself both as a hardliner on Iran and as an interlocutor in the Middle East peace talks, offering to host a summit.

That is likely to win him favour with Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah, who is in any case looking to move away from reliance on America.

I think Sarkozy, or more likely his national security team of Claude Guéant and Jean-David Levitte, took a very subtle reading of the state of play in the Middle East at the end of the Bush administration, and positioned France very well -- both with the Bush adminsitration and in the region -- to take advantage of it. That strategy has gotten a bit trickier given the Obama administration's desire to engage Syria and find a long-term accomodation with Iran, leaving less empty space for France to leverage. And as the above passage makes clear, these are relationships that take time to develop.

But none of this would have been possible without the major shifts in French posture that Sarkozy adopted. The last missing piece is Turkey, and perhaps a more flexible approach to Iran. As always with Sarkozy, pragamatism comes before ideology. To be continued . . .

Madam President for Europe?

Posted By Judah Grunstein 17 Nov 2009 With all the geographical and political calculations going into the selection of the EU president and foreign minister, there's one consideration that's been getting less attention: gender. As Jean Quatremer pointed out last week, women have been largely absent from the list of names circulating as potential candidates for the posts. But that's changing, with a late push for the appointment of a woman to one of the top spots. Today, Quatremer advocates for former Latvian President Vaira Vike-Freiberga as a viable candidate.

But even if a woman does end up being named to one or both positions, the fact is that the EU and Europe remain male-dominated at the highest levels of national and supranational government. So while a women EU president would be symbolically important, it would also be misleading.

Also, the deliberations have underlined a major shortcoming in the selection process, which -- although fascinating for Brussels-watchers and EU insiders -- has been opaque and characterized by backroom horse trading. Given the wide gap between elite and popular opinions about Europe in general and "more Europe" in particular, that's hardly the way to bring public opinion on board for a reinvigorated European project under Lisbon.

These historic appointments could have been a way to generate enthusiasm, buy-in and a sense of accountability between Europeans and their EU leaders -- across national borders. Instead, they are just reinforcing the image of an unaccountable Brussels making decisions based on bureaucratic calculations, largely detached from the concerns of the European constituency.

My Uzi Weighs 975 Sihrs

Posted By Judah Grunstein 17 Nov 2009 Take it with the usual grain of salt, but the Pakistani daily, the Nation, is reporting that militants in North Waziristan used Israeli, Czech and U.S. weapons against Pakistani security forces during the recent campaign there. Apparently, the weapons, which include Uzis as well as M-4s fitted with grenade launchers and laser sights, are also widely available on the Punjab weapons market.

According to the article, the presence of the Israeli weapons is what's really raising eyebrows in Islamabad. I suppose the American weapons are more easily explained. Things have a habit of falling off of trucks, after all. Especially hijacked trucks. But I wouldn't jump to any nefarious conclusions about the Uzis, either. Black market weapons change hands many times between the factory and the end user. And sadly, these items are all pretty easily procured, as the article itself makes clear.

Question: Is there anything reassuring in the fact that fundamentalist Islamic militants in Pakistan are willing to use Isreali-made weapons?

Note: In case you're wondering about the title of this post . . . see here and here, then do the math.

Off the Radar News Roundup

Posted By Judah Grunstein 16 Nov 2009 - China announces yet another military cooperation upgrade, this time with Thailand.

- This article about the followup to the Obama-Hatoyama meeting includes a good rundown of what the U.S.-Japan dispute over the Futenma air base closure is all about.

- I mentioned the various competing plans for Asian regional integration earlier today. Here are the broad outlines of Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's version.

- In the runup to the one-year anniversary of the Mumbai attack, Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi issues a call for renewing the Composite Dialogue with India.

- Turkey moves forward with its Kurdish initiative, despite opposition's objections.

- Israeli President Shimon Peres is touring South American capitals. Latest stop, Argentina, where the national organization of Jewish Argentines said a primary reason for the visit was to offset Iranian influence in the reigon. But given that Peres' tour comes days ahead of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas' own visit, I wonder if it isn't to offset growing South American support of the Palestinian cause.

- Is what ousted Honduran President Mel Zelaya says news anymore?

Researched by Kari Lipschutz