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July 03, 2009
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Holiday Weekend

Posted By The Editors 02 Jul 2009 World Politics Review will not be publishing tomorrow, July 3. Enjoy the Fourth of July weekend, and check back in on Monday.

Wrong and Strong in Honduras?

Posted By Judah Grunstein 02 Jul 2009 Good stuff from Faith Smith at the Washington Note, on what's at play in Honduras:

And so the showdown begins. On one side we have Zelaya backed by the international community and on the other is the government of Honduras backed by the majority of its 7.5 million citizens; an unfair fight for sure.

What's most fascinating to me about the above is how in and of itself, it leads you to a pretty obvious assumption. Substitute Zimbabwe for Honduras, for instance, and former opposition leader (now prime minister) Morgan Tsvangirai for ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya and your case makes itself.

But the entirety of Smith's post shows how, contrary to our instinct and intuition, in the absence of context (in this case, legal context), the formulation above really doesn't give you much to hang your hat on. The whole thing is worth reading for how it sets up that nugget.

Former President Bill Clinton once famously said wrong and strong beats right and weak. This might very well prove to be an example of that rule of thumb. There's still the chance of a best-case scenario, whereby Zelaya's return is negotiated in exchange for a civilian destitution (impeachment) or Zelaya conceding on the actual referendum that catalyzed the military intervention. I don't see how a grandstanding showdown -- with Zelaya returning to Honduras surrounded by a human chain of diplomatic untouchables -- facilitates that, though.

Public Pressure Blocks China's 'Green Dam' Plan

Posted By Juliette Terzieff 02 Jul 2009 Chinese bloggers and artists, and rights advocates around the globe, are celebrating Beijing's postponement of a wildly unpopular plan to mandate the inclusion of filtering software in all computers sold in China as of July 1.

The decision to postpone the "Green Dam Youth Escort" program -- which Chinese officials described as a concerted effort to address pornography on the Internet -- followed weeks of massive domestic and international pressure over concerns the software would serve as a vehicle to increase state censorship. The move may also have been in recognition of the fact that computer companies' needed more time to implement the requirements.

Entreaties to reconsider the program came from many sectors, including multinational companies that normally avoid overtly public positions on touchy China issues.

Industry groups -- including the Information Technology Industry Council and Software & Information Industry Association -- released a statement urging China to shelve its demand, endorsing instead "an open and healthy dialogue on how parental control software can be offered in the market in ways that ensure privacy, system reliability, freedom of expression, the free flow of information, security and user choice."

On the activist side, Human Rights Watch led a campaign urging computer companies to resist the plan as a "serious new threat to free expression." The plan, HRW argued, "could further intrude on user privacy, undermine user choice, and have the potential to make multinational companies complicit in those efforts."

Sunday in the Store with Michelle

Posted By Judah Grunstein 02 Jul 2009 Found this via Sam Roggeveen at the Interpreter. (For those unfamiliar with the Interpreter, this farewell post by the Lowy Institute's outgoing executive director is a fine introduction.)

For whatever it's worth, French President Nicolas Sarkozy has been making noise about allowing French department stores to open on Sundays for a few years now. He just used Michelle Obama's experience because he figured she'd make for a good marketing ploy. But he didn't really think it through, because a great part of the Obama's appeal is their down-to-earth image. Here, Sarkozy calls some of his VIP pals to get them to open their stores for a personal, royal visit, tarnishing the Obama ladies with his own bling bling image. The piece doesn't mention the stores in question, but I'm assuming we're not talking about a couple boutiques, but rather high-end department stores.

My guess is a backlash, more widespread than the response of the Communist Party, which at this point is politically irrelevant even among the far-left fringe.

Soft Power and the American Virus

Posted By Judah Grunstein 02 Jul 2009 I think Matthew Yglesias is letting his desire to disagree with Michael Goldfarb get in the way of his judgment, because McDonald's on the Champs Elysées is not "soft power." And if "that kind of thing is the real strength of the United States of America," it is a strength that reflects cultural hegemony, as Goldfarb implies, not influence.

This gets to a growing misuse of the idea of "soft power," which has to do with a nation's ability to influence through attraction, not coercion. To begin with, the exercise of soft power for the most part resides in statecraft. Elements of soft power include credibility and reputation, combined with the ability -- and willingness -- to advance the other party's interests in a cooperative relationship. Public perception plays a role inasmuch as it generates domestic political incentives for cooperation.

In terms of cultural penetration, that means exposing other countries to aspects and elements of U.S. culture that will generate that kind of domestic political incentive.

In that regard, the ubiquitous proliferation of McDonald's franchises doesn't qualify. First, it reinforces the worst negative stereotypes of America. Second, the vast majority of McDonald's French employees do not develop any personal bond to America or Americans, nor, I suspect, do they leave with a newfound appreciation of the "American way of doing business." Third, far from being perceived as a positive or even benign influence, McDonald's represents a direct threat to some very entrenched elements of the "French way of doing life." The same argument can be applied to most of the brands Yglesias lists, including IKEA (even if the objection to Starbucks is based on a widespread French delusion about the quality of the coffee served in their cafés).

Consistently over the eight years I've been here, the people I've met who have affection for and positive perceptions of the U.S. are those who have personal contact with America or Americans, whether through travel, business or family and friends. For the most part, that involves French people coming to the U.S., rather than American mass culture coming to France. But it also involves French people doing business with American counterparts, as opposed to American chain franchises.

There are, of course, exceptions. The outpouring of grief for Michael Jackson is just the most recent reflection of how mass media icons can help plant the seeds of a sympathetic inclination toward America. They also often serve as the initial impulse to come visit America, something you can be sure that McDonald's rarely does. But for the most part, for the American "virus" to have beneficial effects, it has to be caught Stateside.

Where Goldfarb is wrong is to conclude that McDonald's represents "a major triumph for American culture and cuisine." In fact, a pretty consistent, if not universal, indicator of a French person's stance on America is their appreciation of American cuisine. By cuisine, I mean the real kind, which exists in rich regional variety. I'm talking about Texas bar-b-q and biscuits and gravy, New England clam chowder, Cajun popcorn, jamabalaya and gumbo, Southern soul food, N.Y. deli and bagels, you name it. To say nothing of the foodies, which for better or worse represent American inventiveness and innovation. Nine times out of ten, French people who talk about a Thanksgiving meal as a culinary discovery are French people who feel a kinship with America.

On the other hand, those who talk about cuisine as a mixture of tastes and sauces -- while refusing to acknowledge that bar-b-q sauce, gravy, or sausage recipes that date back fewer than 400 years qualify -- nine times out of ten have never been to America, and therefore never eaten American cuisine, or else think of American cuisine, like Goldfarb, as what's on offer at a McDonald's.

So if McDonald's qualifies as soft power, it's of the negative variety. The positive variety exists, but it doesn't, as Goldfarb put it, taste like hegemony.

Nepal Addresses Corruption Problem

Posted By Judah Grunstein 01 Jul 2009 Brilliant. I wonder how they'll tackle sexual harassment.

Taiwan to China: Send Cash

Posted By Judah Grunstein 01 Jul 2009 More progress on cross-Straits relations: Taiwan has opened its markets to mainland Chinese investment. The new rules are in part a testament to the power of Chinese cash reserves (Taiwan's economy shrank 10 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2009). But they also represent a significant, if pragmatic, step towards Taiwanese President Ma Ying-Jeou's goal of closer economic ties, which have to date been mainly one-way (from Taiwan to China). "Institutional" investment -- by which I understand state-sponsored, but I might be mistaken -- is limited to 10 percent of stock ownership, while limits on corporate ownership will be decided on a case-by-case basis. Some sectors -- high-tech manufacturing -- have been kept off-limits.

Curious time, then, for the U.S. to release a $45-million sale of 171 Stinger air-to-air missiles to Taiwan. The missiles will be outfitted to a batch of Apache attack helicopters, released last October, meant to "interdict a Chinese amphibious invasion force attempting to cross the Taiwan Strait." I haven't found any official Chinese response, so far. It will be interesting to see if the usual condemnations from Beijing over U.S. arms sales to Taiwan diminish as cross-Straits ties improve, or if Beijing instead tries to use the latter to leverage the former. It will also be interesting to see how Taiwan's procurement requests shift as a function of improved relations as well. Both, taken together, will be a pretty good litmus test of how far-reaching the accelerating thaw really is.

The Swedish EU Presidency

Posted By Judah Grunstein 01 Jul 2009 The good news, if you're an EU fan, is that the Czech Republic presidency mercifully came to an end starting today. From start to finish, it was a bumpy, amateurish ride, as this EU Observer wrap-up entertainingly illustrates. (The fun stuff starts about halfway through.) There were some accomplishments, although in typical EU fashion, it's hard to tell how lasting they will be.

The French obstructionism highlighted by the article might not raise eyebrows, since France already has the reputation of being arrogant with regard to the smaller and newer member states. But it contrasts with France's support and assistance to the Slovenian EU presidency, which used French diplomatic resources to supplement its own meager global presence. So the chilling effect is not so much on the "Big Bang" member states as on independent-minded ones. The Czech Republic didn't help its cause, though, by demonstrating an other-worldly incompetence.

The not-so-good news, though, is that the Swedish EU presidency, which kicks off today, has got a pretty tall order to fill. It's facing severe institutional uncertainty, since the new structures mandated by the Lisbon Treaty still depend on the Irish re-referendum in October. Even in the event the treaty passes the Irish hurdle, it will mean political jockeying for the newly established positions.

It also coincides with a newly elected EU Parliament and a new mandate for the EU Commission, which will likely entail some fresh faces and most importantly, as pointed out by the EU Observer, "fresh power currents." Meanwhile, any realistic hope of generating movement on climate change, placed at the center of the Swedish presidency's agenda, has been hobbled by the global economic downturn.

So if things can't really get much worse, there's no guarantee they'll get much better. And if that's not the EU in a nutshell, I'm not sure what is.

Zimbabwe's Diamond Killing Fields Raise Ghosts of Past

Posted By Juliette Terzieff 30 Jun 2009 Rights advocates are urging the Zimbabwean government and international community to act to end forced labor and bloodshed related to diamond-mining operations in the country's east.

"The police and army have turned this peaceful area into a nightmare of lawlessness and horrific violence. Zimbabwe's new government should get the army out of the fields, put a stop to the abuse, and prosecute those responsible," HRW's Africa director, Georgette Gagnon, said in a statement.

Military forces are involved in a systematically bloody campaign to control diamond mines in Zimbabwe's eastern Marange district, Human Rights Watch charges in a June 26 report, "Diamonds in the Rough: Human Rights Abuses in the Marange Diamond Fields of Zimbabwe."

Researchers allege that the military swept into the area in 2008, killing 200 villagers and beating villagers into submission. HRW contends that mining operations now involve forced child labor and continued beatings, torture and other coercive measures.

HRW further charges that funds derived from the sale of Marange diamonds -- estimated to be worth $200 million monthly -- feed the coffers of President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF party. Zimbabwean officials counter that the military presence in the area is merely a bulwark against illegal mining.

With the formation of a coalition government earlier this year, Zimbabwe is just beginning a tentative exit from a massive downward economic spiral that saw a decade of debilitating hyperinflation, massive unemployment and the spread of food insecurity. Zimbabwean officials -- particularly former opposition leader and now Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai -- have been seeking international aid, but found firm resistance in many Western capitals to providing funds before major reforms are initiated.

While the Marange situation might not meet the criteria of conflict -- or "blood" -- diamonds in order to be monitored under the Kimberly Process, it certainly fuels abuse. HRW wants the definition of the Kimberly Process -- which aims to prevent diamond sales that help drive conflict -- expanded to include diamonds mined through government "repression and violent abuses."

Investigators tied to the Kimberly Process Certification Scheme began a fact-finding mission to the area last Friday for the third time since 2006.

Asymmetric Diplomacy

Posted By Judah Grunstein 30 Jun 2009 Interesting bit of accounting by Geoffrey Forden at Arms Control Wonk, who does a "back of the napkin" calculation of how much the Natanz enrichment facility has actually cost Iran. Grand total? $270 million. There are broader costs associated with Iran's nuclear program, but for now, the most troubling component at the heart of the diplomatic standoff remains the uranium enrichment going on at Natanz.

For a facility that now dominates the region's strategic agenda, that seems like a pretty good return on investment. It also means that whatever actual infrastructure damage, in dollar terms, that any airstrike might cause would pale in comparison to the kind of economic retaliation Iran could very likely respond with.