Steven Metz

The Syrian civil war continues because those who could stop it believe that time is on their side and things will eventually turn in their favor, or else that ending the fighting is not worth the costs. Sadly the conflict is not yet ripe for resolution, and the innocent pay the price. It is impossible to predict the outcome of the war with certainty, but it is possible to sketch feasible scenarios. more

The controversy over whether the Obama administration lied about the September 2012 attack on the U.S. diplomatic compound in Benghazi, Libya, will consume Washington for some time, ultimately influencing the way the U.S. military responds to crises. But while the emotion associated with the inability to stop the attack is understandable, it may push the military to take excessive risks in future crises. more

With the U.S. out of Iraq and getting out of Afghanistan, interest in insurgency is ebbing. Still, unlike the 1990s, it has not gone away entirely. This continued interest is a good thing, but, unfortunately, official thinking reflects old-style insurgency more than emerging forms. The failure to adapt U.S. thinking to changing patterns of insurgency leaves the country poorly equipped for the next conflict. more

Africa has never been central to America's global security strategy. From Washington's vantage, the continent has always been less important than other regions. The official approach has normally been one of relative indifference with a bit of aid when things got really bad. In the past year, though, several factors have increased the attention being paid to Africa by American policymakers and military leaders. more

The U.S. is different from most states throughout history. With no major enemies nearby, America's wars have been fought around the world against a wide range of opponents. This meant that U.S. policymakers and military leaders needed to anticipate the location and identity of their enemies. Being wrong had strategic costs. Unfortunately, the U.S. isn't particularly good at predicting its future conflicts. more

The U.S. military is led by some of the most educated professionals in the world, bolstered by the "professional military educational system." But like all aspects of the military, that system now faces cuts or major reorganization as the defense budget shrinks. While this is necessary, it is important to understand what the military education system does in order to distinguish good changes from bad ones. more

Under North Korea's former dictator Kim Jong Il, crises followed a well-choreographed pattern. However much this game frustrated the United States, Washington was fairly confident that it would not escalate into accidental war. Kim knew how far to push and when to back off. Unfortunately, the young Kim Jong Un is now attempting to emulate his father but in a much clumsier and more dangerous way. more

Today strategic futurists in the U.S. military face hard times. As the defense budget shrinks, money and time for forecasting and analysis are hard to come by. There is no doubt that cuts in defense spending are needed, but if thinking about the future falls by the wayside, the result could be deadly. After all, big changes in the nature of conflict and warfare are already underway. Preparation must begin now. more

As the lesson fest from the 10th anniversary of the U.S. invasion of Iraq subsides, attention is shifting to Iraq's current security predicament and its relationship with the United States. Unfortunately, it is not a pretty picture. This matters because Iraq itself matters. But it also offers a window into the future. If everything goes exactly right, Afghanistan tomorrow may look much like Iraq today. more

There is increasing agreement among national security experts that the U.S. strategy of the past two decades is politically and economically unsustainable, so Washington must cut its security commitments and scale down engagement around the world, particularly when it involves the U.S. military. Given all this, the question is not whether the U.S. will undertake strategic retrenchment, but where and how much. more

In response to North Korea's Feb. 12 nuclear test, the U.N. Security Council recently tightened sanctions, drawing a round of angry threats from Pyongyang. While we cannot know whether the threats are serious or simply more of the same old lathering, it would be prudent to think the unthinkable and reason through what a war instigated by a fearful and delusional North Korean regime might mean for U.S. security. more

The broadest lessons of the Iraq War suggest the appropriate way for the United States to deal with hostile dictators. Iraq has already shaped U.S. policy toward Libya and Syria and continues to affect its approach to Iran and North Korea. Some day, Iraq may influence U.S. strategy toward other authoritarian regimes. In this sense, the Iraq War has already become part of America's foreign policy playbook. more

No topic in American security inspires more heated debate these days than the Obama administration's use of drone strikes against armed militants and terrorists. Much of the criticism of this approach is badly misguided, often mistaking the use of drones as America's strategy itself. Without seeing the big picture, it is difficult to understand how drone strikes fit in and why they are the least bad option. more

The more nuclear powers there are, the higher the possibility nuclear weapons will be used -- whether out of desperation by a crumbling or unstable regime or pure wickedness by terrorists or criminals. If this happens, the U.S. military could possibly be ordered into the post-nuclear environment. But the U.S. armed forces are currently unprepared to operate in an environment contaminated by a nuclear explosion. more

The suffering and triumph of the Arab Spring remain unfinished, not only for the transitions in Libya, Syria, Tunisia and Egypt, but for other Arab states as well, particularly the monarchies. The Arab monarchs are still feeling the pressure that swept away their nonroyal counterparts. American national security strategy weathered the first wave of the Arab Spring, but it might not be so lucky in the next one. more

The U.S. and its allies face the enduring possibility that desperation or miscalculation may lead North Korea to strike out violently. Given this, the U.S. needs a careful plan for how to respond. The U.S. should issue an explicit policy statement on North Korean provocation to diminish the chances of miscalculation by Kim Jong Un. It is vital that Kim clearly understands the costs of future provocations. more

For the past 20 years, U.S. security strategy in Africa relied on empowering partner militaries, with few U.S. military forces actually stationed there. Instead the concentration has been on training programs, with the idea being that increasingly effective African militaries could promote regional security without a major U.S. presence. Unfortunately, that hope is facing severe challenges in Mali. more

Until recently, the spread of al-Qaida-linked extremists in Africa drew only limited U.S. attention, but the seizure of northern Mali by Islamist militias changed that. Why, other than an instinct to oppose anything even vaguely associated with al-Qaida, should the United States care? The only logical rationale for U.S. concern is contagion: A modest effort now could prevent bigger problems in the future. more

Last week's meeting between U.S. President Barack Obama and Afghan President Hamid Karzai felt like a desperate attempt to salvage a crumbling marriage: With the relationship dying, the two sides quibbled over the pace of U.S. disengagement and the extent of future U.S. aid. Instead, as U.S. involvement in Afghanistan winds down, Americans should be thinking about what they can learn from their longest war. more

While both the U.S. Army and Marine Corps were created during the American Revolution, until the 20th century they had very different missions. Eventually, though, the distinction between the two services narrowed, and both Army and Marine leaders assume this convergence will continue. If the only real distinction between the Army and the Marine Corps is one of size, does the United States still need both? more