James M. Dorsey

It's time to think the unthinkable: Saudi Arabia and other oil-rich Persian Gulf states may be next in line to confront widespread popular discontent. Rumblings of popular restlessness are bubbling to the surface in the Gulf. To quell rising anger, Arab leaders are scrambling to implement measures ranging from cash handouts, to cosmetic changes of government, to a renewed emphasis on job-creation. more

The Middle East and North Africa welcomed the New Year with rare protests in an arc stretching from Algeria to Kuwait, directed against repressive regimes at home rather than a foreign power. Even if they are unlikely to repeat the regime-toppling successes of the velvet revolutions of Eastern Europe, the protests reflect increased chafing at disenfranchisement and lack of opportunity and good governance. more

For a number of reasons, the Obama administration has been notably silent on human rights issues in the run-up to Egypt's Nov. 28 parliamentary elections. But for the U.S., the long-term risks of being perceived as perpetuating authoritarian rule in Egypt and elsewhere in the Arab world outweigh the short-term benefits of turning a blind eye to flagrant human-rights violations and anti-democratic measures. more

Oil and gas discoveries in the eastern Mediterranean are ratcheting up tensions in a region that already has its fair share of pernicious disputes. Rival communities on the divided island of Cyprus, as well as Turkey and arch-enemies Lebanon and Israel are staking claims in the new oil frontier. Rather than providing an opportunity for stability through economic cooperation, the discoveries raise the specter of renewed conflict. more

Rather than weakening militants, Western counterterrorism and counterinsurgency strategies in Yemen and Somalia are fueling radicalism and turning wide swathes of the population against the West. With little real effort to economically and politically stabilize the two countries, U.S. military and security support exacerbates local fault lines and strengthens deep-seated anti-Americanism. more

The U.S. and EU are pressuring members of the Gulf Cooperation Council to forge closer ties with Yemen in a bid to link the fight against al-Qaida to tangible economic benefits for the Arab world's poorest nation. The Obama administration believes the endorsement of Yemen's 10-year-old request for GCC membership could prompt a more favorable response when the group meets in Abu Dhabi in December.
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An increasingly vicious battle between pro- and anti-Syrian factions in Lebanon is likely to determine the country's ability to resist Syrian interference in its internal politics. Also at stake is the future of a United Nations investigation into the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. The dispute leaves Prime Minister Saad Hariri on the horns of a dilemma, and Lebanon at a crossroads.
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Last week's kidnapping of seven foreigners, including five Frenchmen, by al-Qaida-linked militants in a uranium mining town in Niger has increased pressure on both France and the EU to become more militarily involved in the region's fight against jihadists. The kidnapping threatens France's major source of uranium for its nuclear power plants and throws down the gauntlet for the EU in its counterterrorism efforts. more

A covert Israeli-Lebanese intelligence war as well as a recent Lebanese-Israeli border clash have persuaded Lebanese President Michael Sulaiman and Prime Minister Saad Hariri to increase coordination between Lebanon's army and intelligence services and Hezbollah. The shift has created policy dilemmas for the United States and France, which have both designated the group as a terrorist organization. more

A recent rocket attack on the twin Red Sea resorts of Eilat in Israel and Aqaba in Jordan raises the specter of renewed Bedouin violence in Egypt's Sinai peninsula, where security forces are struggling to fight rising crime, stem illegal immigration, stymie terrorist threats and protect oil and gas pipelines. more

Pakistan's worst flooding in almost a century may be remembered as much for the magnitude of the disaster as for the fact that it constituted a major setback in the government's efforts to defeat Islamist militants. There is a long list of natural and man-made disasters in Islamic countries in which militant Islamists have garnered popularity by responding effectively with relief and emergency aid.
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Stepped-up hostilities between Turkish forces and Kurdish guerrillas in southeastern Turkey and northern Iraq coupled with a high-powered Iraqi Kurdish campaign to achieve greater autonomy are complicating U.S. efforts to ensure that Iraq remains united once American troops leave the country. The increased hostilities couldn't come at a worse time for the Obama administration. more

Tension between Iran and the United Arab Emirates is rising after the UAE became the first Gulf state to publicly signal endorsement of military force to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power.  Though the UAE Foreign Ministry later repudiated remarks made by its ambassador to the United States, the comments offer a rare insight into the thinking behind closed doors of a key U.S. ally. more

Virtually unnoticed, U.S. President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu have quietly set the stage to move forward Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, mend their tense personal relations and build an effective working relationship. In a series of low-key moves, both men have worked to ensure that their meeting today demonstrates improved relations since Netanyahu's last visit in March. more

Once implacable enemies, Turkey and the autonomous Kurdish Regional Government in northern Iraq are forging ever-closer political and economic ties, independent of the Iraqi central government in Baghdad. The relationship is blossoming despite the failure of Turkey's domestic "Kurdish initiative," but could be threatened by a recent wave of attacks from the northern Iraq-based Kurdish guerrilla group, the PKK.
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