Kirk H. Sowell is an independent consultant based in the Washington, D.C. area. An attorney and specialist in the Middle East, Sowell's Arabic-language research focuses on politics and political risk in the region. For further information, see www.kirksowell.com.
An agreement reached between Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and Moqtada al-Sadr broke the logjam that had held up the formation of an Iraqi government. While the prospect of another Shiite-dominated government has raised concerns of renewed sectarian conflict, the arrival of senior Kurdish leaders for negotiations in Baghdad points to a more immediate danger: the Arab-Kurd conflict over the national census. more
Iraq is moving toward a resolution of the messy political jockeying that followed its March 7 parliamentary elections. But despite some surprises, and the torturous process itself, the likely outcome remains a continuation of the status quo ante -- a government dominated by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and the so-called Quartet Coalition. But if the past three weeks have virtually sealed that outcome, Maliki's re-election is not assured. more
Most coverage of the outcome of Iraq's March 7 elections has portrayed
Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's re-election as seriously in doubt, with
former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, a secular Shiite, contending for the
position. However, a close reading of available region-by-region vote counts suggests that not only is another term for Maliki likely, his only
real obstacle is securing Kurdish support.
more
Iraq's parliamentary elections this Sunday, March 7, will close the first full chapter in the country's transformation to a democratically elected, majority-rule system of government. The nation's corruption, fragile peace and lack of national reconciliation have left many -- including American officials -- looking for change, in either Iraq's leadership or its government. They will likely be disappointed. more