Michael Cecire

Despite parallel histories and a concerted push on both sides to forge lasting ties, Georgia and Israel face very different geopolitical concerns and increasingly conflicting national interests. Indeed, their partnership, which once seemed so natural, now looks permanently derailed. The August 2008 Russia-Georgia War, in particular, was the beginning of the end for Georgia and Israel’s friendship. more

As tensions over Iran’s nuclear program rise, assertions that Israel’s increasing closeness to Azerbaijan represents the emergence of an anti-Iran “tag team” are gaining currency. But despite warming ties, there is no indication that Baku is in any hurry to sacrifice its national interests by participating in a conflict that could possibly drag it into a regional conflagration. more

The Oval Office meeting between U.S. President Barack Obama and Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili on Jan. 30 has already been chalked up as a major victory by Tbilisi, with increased defense ties the centerpiece development. Yet aside from an oblique reference by Saakashvili to “elevating our defense cooperation further,” details on any changes in the military relationship have been scarce.
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The standoff between Ukraine and Russia over gas prices will be accompanied by an added wrinkle this year, with news that Ukraine plans to ink a deal with energy-rich Azerbaijan for supplies of liquefied natural gas. The partnership will finally introduce unconventional energy sources to Ukraine, and underscores the flagging fortunes of Russia’s pipeline monopoly and the dwindling leverage it commands. more

With Russia embroiled in demonstrations following surprisingly competitive Duma elections and South Ossetia gripped by political confusion over its own surprising presidential poll, it may be time to re-evaluate a few political tropes in Eurasia. The developments are all the more noteworthy for coming as Georgia faces a political showdown that is casting the republic’s autocratic contours into sharp relief. more

The latest front in the Arab Spring opened up in Kuwait when Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmed Al Sabah issued a decree dissolving Kuwait’s parliament in response to months of protests. more

Recent remarks by a prominent Saudi Arabian royal have fanned new fears that Iran's advancing nuclear program could kick-start a nuclear arms race in the region. more

A memorandum of understanding between the Armenian Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources and the Isle of Man-registered International Minerals & Mines Ltd. is paving the way for the exploration of Armenia's shale reserves. Should large-scale commercial extraction proceed, Armenia's energy find could grant the landlocked Caucasus nation a measure of energy independence and, with it, newfound geopolitical freedom. more

Allegations of Russian involvement in a bombing targeting the U.S. embassy compound in Tbilisi, Georgia, have sent diplomatic shockwaves through international policy circles and threaten the Obama administration's carefully calibrated "reset" program with Moscow. While the details of the incident underscore the Caucasus' still-smoldering volatility, they are consistent with Russia's longtime activities in the region. more

Georgia's image as a lonely bastion of Western-style modernity in the South Caucasus faces a credibility problem in light of Tbilisi's continuing lack of political progress toward a truly liberal democracy. By allowing Georgia's democratic development to remain at a standstill, President Mikheil Saakashvili risks damaging the country's legitimacy, both domestically and with its partners in the West.
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Against the backdrop of the Middle East's ongoing upheaval, especially the violence in neighboring Syria, Turkey's once-vaunted "zero problems" foreign policy strategy now looks severely outdated. Though Turkey will continue to seek a balanced, multivector foreign policy, the liabilities of its strategy, as illustrated in Syria, have laid bare Ankara's continued Western moorings. more

The U.S.-led intervention in Libya is now in full swing, thanks to a 10-0 vote by the U.N. Security Council. But the seeming unanimity of the vote belies key abstentions from a wary Germany as well as Brazil, Russia, India and China -- the so-called BRIC countries. The BRICs' abstentions raise difficult questions about the future of a rules-based international order at a time of relative U.S. decline. more

TBILISI, Georgia -- Since coming to power in 2003, the government of Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili has declared its desire and intention to bring the country into the West's orbit. That goal has been most visibly illustrated by Georgia's efforts to join the NATO alliance as a full member. But geopolitical realities continue to interfere with those plans, forcing Tbilisi to adjust its foreign policy accordingly. more

TBILISI, Georgia -- Turkey's ongoing foreign-policy reorientation will not only reshape the contours of the surrounding region, but could also force the West and those hopeful of joining its orbit to consider how to position themselves in the resulting geopolitical landscape. Georgia, in particular, will be especially affected by Ankara's emergence as a regional center of influence. more

In the early 18th century, King Vakhtang VI of the ancient Georgian kingdom of Karlti watched as his kingdom was brought to ruin by the onslaught of Persians, Ottomans, and Russians. Today, the dynamics that marked the 18th century are no less potent. Georgia and the Caucasus remain strategic real estate for the historically competing empires of Persia (Iran), Muscovy (Russia), and the Turks (Turkey). more

TBILISI, Georgia -- Most Western defense analysts seem to believe that the sale of four French Mistral-class amphibious vessels to Russia will not only happen, but is an item of overblown concern. However, prevailing opinion in Washington and Brussels stands in sharp contrast to Eastern European capitals, where unease over the sale remains strong and is rooted in very different assumptions over Moscow's intentions. more

TBILISI, Georgia -- Since August 2008, when Russian tanks rolled into Georgian territory, Georgia has been let down by the very Western countries it considered to be its closest friends. Although the Georgian population continues to register overwhelming support for integration into Euro-Atlantic structures, there are now indications that the country's political elite might be losing patience. more

Georgia's decision to send almost 1,000 soldiers to Afghanistan makes sense considering the current government's Westward lean and its NATO ambitions. But the country's short-term chances of accession to NATO are slim at best. So why would Tbilisi commit its forces to the NATO mission in Afghanistan with so little to gain? more

Unlike South Ossetia, which hopes to join the Russian Federation, Abkhazia has made it very clear that it wants nothing short of full independence. Yet, signals from Western capitals and Tbilisi in support of eventual "reunification" with Georgia are paradoxically securing Abkhazia's place in Russia's orbit. Perhaps it's time to call Russia's bluff and recognize Abkhazia's independence. more