Jamsheed K. Choksy

Prior to the next round of negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 group on May 23 in Baghdad, reports have suggested that Tehran is prepared to make substantive concessions on its uranium enrichment program. But while Iran certainly needs a deal, political paralysis in Tehran will be an obstacle to reaching any definitive decision, meaning the Baghdad talks could prove as inconclusive as previous ones. more

When results began to emerge from Iran’s March 2 parliamentary elections, the ayatollahs were quick to herald a victory for the principles of “velayat-e faqih,” or “governance by the Islamic jurist.” However, the results are more complicated and less favorable for the ayatollahs than they claim, as are its likely impacts on Iran’s internal and international affairs.
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Predictions of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's fall from power have been frequent among Western observers. On this view, events involving two American hikers jailed in Tehran are seen as the latest display of Ahmadinejad's political impotence in the face of clerical power. But, despite the predictions, and as a few observers outside Iran have realized, Ahmadinejad's political demise is far from imminent.
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With the breaking of Libya's many-month stalemate, the end of a 42-year reign of megalomaniacal tyranny has arrived. As the rebels attempt to consolidate power in Tripoli, however, what lies ahead for Libya as a nation and for the foreign powers that paved the way for Moammar Gadhafi's ouster remains far from certain. Key to the future of a viable Libya will be law, stabilization and reconstruction. more

At the heart of the widening leadership dispute in Iran is President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's increasing independence from the system of "guardianship of the (religious) jurist," on which Iran's Shiite theocracy is based. In essence, Iran's political battle is over two possible paths ahead: a continuation of the Islamist system of governance or the emergence of a more secular nation with elected, nonclerical officials. more

Not surprisingly, people in the Taliban-controlled areas along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border have turned out to mourn Osama bin Laden's death. Islamist militant groups like Hamas in Gaza have condemned the circumstances of his demise, and some Arabs wish he had been brought to public trial. But by and large, bin Laden's elimination has been met with relief and the hope that terrorism's ties to Islam will abate.
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Military strikes against Moammar Gadhafi's ground forces over the weekend may have come too late for Libya's freedom-seeking people. A ceasefire or internationally imposed standoff between Gadhafi's forces and the anti-government fighters would merely maintain the status quo. If so, Gadhafi will have demonstrated to autocrats that terror is an effective means of maintaining power at home and instilling fear abroad. more

History demonstrates that revolutions often result in new or renewed forms of despotism. One reason for caution regarding the future of the Arab Uprising is that few Middle Eastern countries have political pasts not dominated by monarchy, theocracy or the military. Should Muslim majorities prevail in their quests for secular self-governance, they would be firmly eschewing the replacement of one form of totalitarianism for another. more

Negotiators from the P5+1 countries and Iran failed to reach a breakthrough last week at the latest round of talks over Iran's nuclear program. Nevertheless, it seems that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad wants to keep negotiations alive. The reason is simple: Ahmadinejad's administration requires a positive outcome in hopes of lifting the debilitating economic sanctions targeting the Islamic Republic. more

After nine years of war in Afghanistan and seven more in Iraq, Americans are understandably weary of military interventions designed to remake or rebuild failed or fragile states. Nevertheless, many countries are still falling apart, or worse, falling into the wrong hands. As a result, such nation-building interventions will remain necessary for the foreseeable future. more

Despite some incendiary remarks, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's attendance at the U.N. General Assembly in New York was marked by a low-key tone, reflecting the impact of Iran's domestic politics. Increasingly, Ahmadinejad's real battle is at home, against the mullahs who brought him to power. And in that struggle, he and his allies are increasingly embracing a nationalist tradition that predates Iran's theocracy. more

Beginning last October, Tehran's residents have been barraged by prognostications of an earthquake reducing their metropolis to rubble. Iranian newspapers run stories almost daily detailing possible outcomes. More recently, Tehran's acting prayer leader became the object of worldwide ridicule when he blamed earthquakes on women's wardrobe habits. But what's really at the root of Tehran's earthquake scare? more

A number of recent moves suggest that Iran's mullahs and secular leaders are bridging their recent differences, even if their reconciliation is a begrudging one. These developments are not wholly unexpected. Although the shift will result in a short-term loss of leadership figures for the opposition, the Green Movement's desire for sweeping change has now become mainstream. more

A series of recent moves indicates that Iran's fundamentalist Shiitehierarchy is increasingly wary of extremist Sunni beliefs and themilitant practitioners bringing them into the Islamic Republic fromAfghanistan, Pakistan, and even Iraq. Having been a state sponsor of terrorism for many years, the regime in Tehran has now begun experiencing a measure of the fear they have previously inflicted on others. more

A major reorientation in U.S. policy toward Pakistan is underway, with the planning, administration, and staffing of reconstruction projects being handed over to the government of Pakistan and to private Pakistani organizations. What remains uncertain is whether local Pakistani organizations have the expertise and capacity to implement development efficiently.

Despite the encouraging outcome of yesterday's talks in Geneva, the nuclear standoff with Iran is far from over. It will not end for the U.S. until there is full, ongoing compliance with the International Atomic Energy Agency's inspection regime. And so long as Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is Iran's president, it very likely will not end for Iran until breakout capability has been achieved. more

The recent Iranian election fiasco has been a blessing in disguise for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. His reelection was confirmed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the vote count was ratified by the Council of Guardians, and the presidential oath of office was taken in front of a majority of parliamentarians. Consequently, while those officials may object to his actions, their ability to counter them is limited. more