Lauren Gelfand

Lauren Gelfand is a freelance journalist and analyst now based in Nairobi, with an interest in security and defense issues. After beginning her career as a wire service correspondent, working on three continents for Agence France-Presse, she currently serves as Middle East and Africa editor for Jane's Defence Weekly magazine. She writes in French and in English for a variety of publications.

Articles written by Lauren Gelfand

Niger Elections Smooth Way for Civilian Rule

By Lauren Gelfand
, on , Briefing

Mahamoudou Issoufou's victory in a peaceful and fair election fulfilled the hopes for a strong democratic showing in Niger, which had flirted with chaos after a military coup in February 2010. Niger's transformation from failed autocracy, to military junta, to a hoped-for civilian-led democracy is a bright spot for troubled West Africa. Now, however, the hard work begins for Issoufou's social democratic government. more

ICC Indictments Put Kenya on Trial

By Lauren Gelfand
, on , Briefing

The ICC will rule on whether to issue summonses for six men accused of crimes against humanity for their alleged roles in violence following Kenya's 2007 presidential election. But in announcing the suspects' names, ICC Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo indicted the entire East African nation, saying that "we had to launch this because nothing was happening in Kenya."
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Côte d'Ivoire's Predictable Post-Election Impasse

By Lauren Gelfand
, on , Briefing

Côte d'Ivoire's President Laurent Gbagbo used a prescient campaign slogan in the run-up to the country's Nov. 28 presidential run-off election: "We win, or we win." Despite regional and international recognition of Alassane Dramane Ouattara as the winner of Côte d'Ivoire's Nov. 28 presidential run-off election, current President Laurent Gbagbo wrapped himself in the Ivorian tricolor for an inauguration ceremony.
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Wikileaks Revelations Threaten Kenya's Anti-Corruption Drive

By Lauren Gelfand
, on , Briefing

NAIROBI, Kenya -- U.S. Ambassador to Kenya Michael Ranneberger, known for his blunt assessment of the country's government and political elites, could find his ability to champion Kenyan reform efforts hamstrung, after some 1,400 diplomatic cables originating from his office were included by Wikileaks in the organization's latest release of confidential U.S. government documents.
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Violence Could Cut Short Guinea's Democratic Celebration

By Lauren Gelfand
, on , Briefing

After more than 26 years of autocratic rule, a civilian was elected president in Guinea. But in an indication of the deep-seated animosity, fears and mistrust that have led the nation to the brink of disaster time and time again, the announcement that former Prime Minister Alpha Condé won the second-round run-off election was accompanied by ethnic riots, mass arrests and killings. more

Côte d'Ivoire Elections: Avoiding a 'Danse Macabre'

By Lauren Gelfand
, on , Briefing

To trace the deterioration of Côte d'Ivoire from 2002, when a civil war pitted north against south, through Oct. 31, 2010, when ballots were cast in a presidential election five years overdue, one only needs to look at the dance trends that came and went during that time. The current craze consists of gliding movements and yawns, set to a Zouglou beat and lyrics that proclaim, "On Est Fatigué" ("We Are Tired").
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After Kenya's Vote for Reform, the Hard Work of Implementation

In voting overwhelmingly to support a new constitution, Kenyans sent a clear message on Aug. 4 about the need for reform in a country brought nearly to its knees by corruption and bad governance. And in going to the polls peacefully and en masse, the more than 70 percent of eligible voters who cast their ballots spoke volumes about the need to obviate the memory of violent previous elections.
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Kenya Attack is an Echo, and a Harbinger

A rally and prayer meeting for the campaign against Kenya's constitutional reforms turned deadly this week, when at least six people were killed and another 75 injured by a grenade attack. The images were a reminder of the dark days following Kenya's disputed 2007 elections, when more than 1,300 people died at the hands of police and in ethnically motivated clashes. But this time, the battle lines have been drawn differently. more

Plotline Thickens on Madagascar's Political Standoff

Popularly, Madagascar is known as an exotic and verdant island populated by cheeky animated characters voiced by some of Hollywood's biggest stars. But politically, it remains one of Africa's most volatile countries. The latest installment in the Indian Ocean island's saga of political exploitation would seem to combine the two, pitting a yogurt salesman against a radio disc jockey in the battle for supremacy. more

Sudan's Elections: Historic, but Futile?

NAIROBI, Kenya -- The upcoming elections in Sudan will be the country's first multiparty ballot in 24 years, but for many in South Sudan, their outcome is a forgone conclusion and their fairness is already in question. Flawed though they are, however, the national elections also represent a historic chance for suffrage, with many in the North and South using the campaign to openly voice independent opinions. more

Choosing Stability Over Democracy in Ethiopia

On the surface, Ethiopia is a stable, prospering nation, cultivating strong relationships with the international donors who have for more than a generation funded food, health and infrastructure projects for the country's 85 million people. But according to some groups, beneath the surface is a regime that wields power with impunity, repressing dissent, opposition and difference of opinion. more

Niger Coup is West Africa's Latest Democracy Deficit

Following a trend that has become depressingly familiar in West Africa over the past 18 months, army officers seized power in Niger on Feb. 18, removing President Mamadou Tandja from office. The coup ends a political crisis that began last year, when Tandja used a popular referendum to try to indefinitely prolong his term beyond its December 2009 limit. more

Early Returns on Uganda's 2011 Election

KAMPALA, Uganda -- Kampala is arguably one of the more beautiful capitals in Africa. But the city's beauty not only belies the numbing poverty in which most of Uganda's residents find themselves, it also masks the country's ugly politics. Case in point: The outcome of Uganda's 2011 presidential election is a foregone conclusion, and no one is likely to do anything about it. more

Power Vacuum Leaves Nigeria on Life Support

When Nigerian President Umaru Yar'Adua left the country in November 2009 to seek treatment for a heart ailment, few anticipated that both he and Africa's most populous country would end up on life support. The leadership crisis resulting from Yar'Adua's failure to constitutionally hand over power to Vice President Goodluck Jonathan has had more than just political implications for Nigeria. more

Tensions Rise as Voting Looms in Sudan

On Jan. 9, North and South Sudan marked the fifth anniversary of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement that brought an end to Africa's longest civil war. But as the two sides proceed toward a referendum over Southern independence, long-simmering ethnic tensions in the South are boiling into unrest. more

Cliffhanger for Guinea's Political Drama

For regular watchers of "The Dadis Show" -- the television broadcasts made by Guinea's self-promoting junta leader, Capt. Moussa Dadis Camara, since taking power in a bloodless coup in December 2008 -- the events of the last month have built into a cliffhanger. But whether it will mark the series' season finale, or its last bow, remains to be seen. more

Holidays Bring Nothing to Celebrate in Eastern Congo

In eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, the annual arrival of the holiday season brings with it the sinking realization that no matter the developments of the preceding 12 months, the end of the year will be accompanied by more violence, more sexual assault and more displacement of the civilian population. This year's tragedy is tinged peacekeeper blue. more

In Guinea, China's Africa Policy Still Off-Key

The United States and France have joined a chorus of disapproving African states to condemn recent events in Guinea, which have dimmed hopes that the resource-rich West African nation might finally achieve democratic civilian. One voice that has opted against singing from the international hymn book, however, is arguably Guinea's most important interlocutor: China.

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Kenya's 'Window of Opportunity' Closing

NAIROBI, Kenya -- Kenya's "window of opportunity to deliver reform is rapidly closing," former U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan warned at the end of his latest visit to Nairobi. Though delivered in his characteristic velvet tones, Annan's message was firm: Accelerate the reform agenda, or risk the potential of an irretrievable decline into crisis, with economic as well as political consequences. more

With U.N. Role in Question, D.R. Congo Once Again at Precipice of War

LONDON -- From the air, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo looks like paradise on earth. But on the ground, the grim reality of one of the world's most volatile and perennially ignored regions shocks, with its morass of frightened civilians, bellicose and well-armed fighters and an intractable conflict that threatens to boil over again into war. If that occurs, it will boost an already tragically bloody decade's death toll, estimated at more than four million people, vastly higher. more