The New Rules: War-Gaming Egypt's Future

Over the weekend, Wikistrat -- a Tel Aviv-based technology start-up for which I serve as chief analyst -- gathered a group of Israeli and U.S. geostrategists, myself included, to take part in an online scenario-generating drill in response to the ongoing protests in Egypt. Our goal was to work up four feasible pathway trees along which events could develop -- two favorable to the Egyptian people, two favorable to the Egyptian regime -- and then present them online to interested parties for feedback and voting. The exercise was an attempt to harness the Web 2.0's wisdom of the crowd for strategic forecasting.

Here are the four scenarios we came up with: ...