Global Insights: Geopolitical Consequences of Gaza Flotilla Incident

The international crisis resulting from Israel's interdiction yesterday of a humanitarian aid flotilla heading toward the blockaded Gaza Strip could have several consequences, few of them good for the United States, the Middle Eastern peace process, and many other parties.

First, the crisis could disrupt the indirect peace talks between Israelis and Palestinians that only just resumed a few weeks ago, after roughly 17 months of false starts and frustrated expectations. Many observers have noted that the Gaza flotilla confronted the Israeli government with a no-win situation. The same could be said for the choices now facing the Obama White House. If it backs Israeli's forceful response -- even silently, by declining to join in the international condemnation -- the Obama administration will weaken its credibility with Arabs as an acceptable mediator. If it criticizes the Israeli action, it will further alienate Israelis and American supporters of Israel, already distrustful of the sincerity and competence of the administration's Middle East policies. ...