Iraq's parliamentary elections this Sunday, March 7, will close the first full chapter in the country's transformation to a democratically elected, majority-rule system of government. The government elected in December 2005 consolidated Shiite rule and eventually brought Iraq a degree of security as Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki tightened his grip on the levers of power. Now the nation's corruption, fragile peace and lack of national reconciliation have left many looking for change -- including American officials eager to see, if not a new Iraqi leader, at least a shake-up in the composition of his government.
They will likely be disappointed. There are several possible scenarios for coalitions that might emerge from the election's outcome, but only two are reasonably likely, and both would result in a government that looks a lot like the present one. ...
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