Iran May Have a Lot of Friends in a Future Sanctions Fight With the United States

Iran May Have a Lot of Friends in a Future Sanctions Fight With the United States
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani leaves parliament after speaking as part of a debate over his proposed Cabinet, Tehran, Aug. 15, 2017 (AP photo by Vahid Salemi).

Editor’s note: Guest columnist Neil Bhatiya is filling in for Judah Grunstein, who will return next week.

The Trump administration should take heed of the potential economic pitfalls of its impending showdown with Iran over the 2015 nuclear agreement. A failure by the United States to recertify Iran’s compliance with the nuclear deal would mean the reimposition of sanctions, a move that will only end up isolating the U.S. internationally. If Trump declares Tehran in breach of the nuclear agreement, Washington must be prepared to go it alone, because Iran, and its oil industry, will fight a U.S. snapback of sanctions and can rely on its European and Asian oil customers to back it up.

Under U.S. law, the State Department must notify Congress that Iran is complying with the nuclear deal every 90 days. So far, the Trump administration has twice certified Iran’s compliance, however reluctantly. Ahead of the next deadline in October, there are growing indications that it is preparing to hold Iran in material breach of the nuclear agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

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