North Korea’s successful missile launch and recent nuclear test may have been tactical victories for Kim Jong Un, but they may also be the first step in North Korea losing its strongest ally and lifeline. North Korea’s continued provocations run counter to China’s leadership aspirations, which may cause Beijing’s new leaders to recalculate the costs and benefits of the historical relationship with Pyongyang.

North Korea’s Defiance May Reshape China’s Strategic Calculus

By , , Briefing

For the past four years, China has consistently shielded North Korea from efforts to impose further international sanctions and to heighten Pyongyang’s diplomatic isolation in response to Pyongyang’s repeated provocations on the Korean Peninsula. That support, however, did not stop North Korea from conducting its third nuclear test earlier this month in direct defiance of Beijing’s appeals, with news of the test interrupting the new Chinese leadership’s observance of China’s most important holiday on Feb. 12.

Debate about the diminishing value of Beijing’s support for and alliance with North Korea was already occurring among Chinese policymakers, academics and citizens. In recent years, especially in the aftermath of Kim Jong Il’s death, this debate has been dominated by the People’s Liberation Army and Chinese Communist Party organizations, such as the International Liaison Department, which favor the unconditional backing of the Kim regime. These key drivers of Chinese policy have powerfully and consistently argued that the cost of North Korean nuclear proliferation for regional security and China’s international image is outweighed by the potential consequences for China of stronger pressure or sanctions on North Korea. The latter are seen as including a collapse of the North Korean state, resulting in a flood of refugees across Chinese borders; a reunification of the Koreas, which would eliminate the buffer between China and one of the United States’ closest allies; and the possibility of Pyongyang engaging in further acts of aggression. ...

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