Despite Uncertainty, Venezuela's Political Scenarios Not All Bleak

By Jennifer McCoy, Michael McCarthy, on , Briefing

For 14 years, President Hugo Chávez has been a powerful unifying force in Venezuela, galvanizing his diverse supporters behind his lead, and uniting his opponents in their aversion to his policies and persona. Now, with the presidential inauguration still weeks away and Chávez apparently gravely ill, these centrifugal forces will be much harder to hold together, and many observers have predicted political instability, debilitating infighting within both camps and even violence.

Nevertheless, three dynamics could help to prevent Venezuela from spinning out of control. First, Chávez began last week to prepare for a possible transition by warning Venezuelans of the risks of his illness and by naming the person he hopes will succeed him, thus forestalling an open fight for succession at least for the immediate future. Second, the opposition regained a leader when Henrique Capriles, who lost the presidential election to Chávez in October, won re-election as governor of Miranda state in regional elections on Dec. 16. Third, both sides have clearly accepted democratic elections as the only legitimate route to power, a change from the dangerous volatility of a decade ago. ...

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