In the most recent presidential debate, Republican nominee Mitt Romney attempted to tap into a deep-rooted fear among the American public of instability in the Middle East, and in particular the concern that any resulting oil supply disruption would spike oil prices and trigger a recession.
The concern is historically based: Past recessions have been caused or accelerated by such crises, including the 1973 oil embargo, the 1979 Iranian revolution and the 1980 outbreak of the Iran-Iraq war. Contrary to received wisdom, however, the chance of an oil crisis caused by a hard-to-manage oil disruption has decreased substantially since the 1970s. Indeed, we may well be experiencing a paradigm shift in global oil security that has gone largely unnoticed and that it is built on a number of shock absorbers -- some emanating from the Middle East itself. ...
To read the rest, sign up to try World Politics Review
Sign up for two weeks of free access with your credit card. Cancel any time during the free trial and you will be charged nothing.
Request a free trial for your office or school. Everyone at a given site can get access through our institutional subscriptions.
- World Citizen: Netanyahu’s Speech Divides Washington—and Israel
- The Realist Prism: U.S.-Iran Deal a Gamble for Everyone, Including Netanyahu
- Turkey Security Bill Latest Fault Line Between Erdogan and Opponents
- Diplomatic Fallout: At U.N., Russia Is Now the Indispensable Nation
- Strategic Horizons: Making Libya a U.N. Protectorate Would Be Wise but Impossible