Two Scenarios for China's Fifth-Generation Leadership: Part II

Editor’s note: This is the second of a two-part series that uses current trends in the Chinese political economy to forecast the outcomes and implications for China under the fifth generation of Communist Party leadership. Part I examined a best-case scenario. Part II examines a worst-case scenario.

SHANGHAI -- China’s fifth-generation leadership cadre will assume office later this year at a critical and perilous juncture in the country’s socio-economic development. They do so against a backdrop of weak global economic growth and growing geopolitical uncertainty in North Korea, Iran and multiple Central Asian states. Moreover, the U.S. is on a roll in Asia, garnering influence throughout the region, most notably in Hanoi, Yangon, Jakarta and Ulan Bator. ...