Two Scenarios for China's Fifth-Generation Leadership: Part I

Editor’s note: This is the first of a two-part series that uses current trends in the Chinese political economy to forecast the outcomes and implications for China under the fifth generation of Communist Party leadership. Part I examines a best-case scenario. Part II will examine a worst-case scenario.

SHANGHAI -- As China approaches its once-a-decade senior leadership transition, structural weaknesses in the country’s economic model are becoming more apparent, even as the momentum surrounding progressive reforms appears to be incrementally increasing. A best-case scenario for China under the fifth-generation Communist Party leadership assumes a continuation of both trends, with the net result being a reinvigoration of the Chinese economy and accelerated social development. These changes in turn allow China to assume a position of global leadership as a benign new superpower whose rise has an overwhelmingly positive impact on global affairs. ...